Hockey Playoffs Round 3

Round 2 is in the books and we have two match-ups with great narratives on tap! In one instance, the great Igor rebounded nicely from a couple of rough outings against the Penguins to win a 7 game series against the Carolina Hurricanes. In another instance, Mike Smith locked the Flames down in 5 games, like we all knew he would. Obviously, I'm joking and I'm pretty sure that maybe less than 1% of the world's population predicted that outcome, and Mike Smith won another series, despite his best effort to lose games. The Florida Panthers scored one power-play goal all post-season, which is still greater than the number of games they won against Tampa Bay. Nazem Kadri did end up being the thorn in the side of the Blues that did them in, like I said in my round 2 predictions (humble brag), but it really didn't go down the way I expected... like at all... fueled by uncalled threats and racist remarks against him. In this round, there are just two match-ups to watch, which is unfortunate for us degenerate gamblers. Will Mike Smith actually keep winning against the Avalanche or will he come back to Earth? The Battle of Igor vs Vasilevskiy is one for the ages, but will it disappoint us?

Western Conference Finals

Colorado vs Edmonton

Predicted Winner: Edmonton wins 4-3

Bets taken: Edmonton Oilers series winner (+200) 1 unit

Consider this: The talk of McDavid vs MacKinnon is going to really be forced on us for the entire length of this series, but Evander Kane is the Oiler I'm most excited to bet on. Evander has 15 points in the last 13 games against Colorado, including 44 shots. He should continue to get decent prop lines. Of the two super-stars between McDavid and MacKinnon, I think McDavid is most likely to win in points scored between the two. In the last 5 games against the Avalanche, he has 10 points. On the flip side, Nathan MacKinnon has 7 points in his last 5 games. Obviously, both numbers are very good and this could be a battle of the ages. If you are looking for some wild-card shots to score goals, I like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for the Oilers, who has a high shooting rate against the Avs (over 3.6 shots per game in the last 3 years). Although RNH's linemates are not great, unless they get shuffled around, so don't bet the house on it. A free bet is fine. Artturi Lehkonen is a guy who had solid success against Edmonton last season in the all-Canadian division playing with Montreal (7 points in 9 games last year).

Series Analysis: Superstar vs superstar! McDavid vs MacKinnon. But this series is going to be much more than that. Mike Smith vs Darcy Kuemper! Arizona Coyote fans are proud crying out there... all 5 of them. Obviously, I got Edmonton wrong as I picked Calgary to win the cup this year, for some unknown reason. However, I do believe we will see the Avalanche fall in this series. They had a couple of games and blown leads to the Blues that looked alarming. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have combined for 52 points, which is absolutely unheard of. If the Avalanche are still blowing leads, they will not be able to come back from this.

Eastern Conference Finals

New York Rangers vs Tampa Bay

Predicted Winner: Tampa Bay wins 4-2

Bets taken: None

Consider this: Artemi Panarin is just not shooting the puck as much anymore. In the series against Carolina, his 2.5 shot line went over just 1 time out of 7 games. Vatarno is most familiar with the Lightning, as he played against them 16 times in the last 3 years (mostly as a member with the Panthers). His numbers are pretty average though (8 points and 30 shots in 16 games played). Shesterkin played 3 games against Tampa Bay this year, and only allowed 4 goals total. If the team looks healthy in front of him, Igor may be able to put up a lot of saves in a couple of games. Zibanejad has been playing well lately, and he has 4 goals in his last 3 games against Tampa. This makes playing any-time goal scorer for him (especially at home) interesting in the +175 or above range. Corey Perry was playing on the top power-play against the Panthers and he scored 3 goals in the 4 games against them (2 which were on the power-play). He is a sneaky play around +300 or greater odds to score a goal. Victor Hedman should be able to contribute with assists in most games.

Series Analysis: I have to be honest, when I took my time to factor in who would win this series, I mixed up who I thought was playing home games in games 1 and 2. The Rangers have been excellent at home this post-season, posting a record of 7-1 and they get the home field advantage in this series, believe it or not. However, we know now that the Hurricanes were awful on the road and without their own team voted MVP, Freddie Andersen. The Penguins were playing their 3rd string goalie who was playing most of the season in Wilkes-Barre / Scranton. Tampa Bay is an absolute nightmare in all aspects of the game and they have been playing like it too. Also, Tampa is pretty well rested, as they have been awaiting an opponent for nearly a full week. The Rangers are coming off of two back-to-back 7 game series. This is the time when a lot of players are playing through injuries, but this could be too difficult to overcome. The back-to-back champs will get a shot to play in the finals for a three-peat.