Football Bets Week 11

Football Bets Week 11

Kurt Kuklewicz

Week 11 brings some interesting storylines, and also leaves us pretty bare with a lot of elite wide receivers and teams on byes. However, Christian Watson already has up some nice units from an anytime TD scorer cash. Let's dig in.

Matt Judon ov0.75 sacks VS NYJ (-105)

Judon is the league leader for sacks this year with 11.5 through 9 games. Today, he faces an average offensive line in the Jets. However, let's not forget how awful Zach Wilson has played against the Patriots in his career. He has a total of 7 career interceptions in 3 games against the Pats. He also has been sacked 7 times in these 3 games, so there will be plenty opportunity for Judon to log a sack today. Belichick loves to blitz and pressure inexperienced quarterbacks, and that trend should continue again today.

Chicago Bears ML vs Atlanta (+125)

The Bears had a heartbreaking loss to the Lions last week. The Falcons look awful as they try to mask their horrendous offense with gobbling up as much time as possible off the clock and running the ball as much as possible. Marcus Mariota is clearly missing throws and is trending downwards with his play. However, Justin Fields looks to be entering a zone of newly found confidence. He is being described as a "league winning" quarterback in fantasy football. He's totaled over 300 yards rushing in the last two games combined. He also has thrown 7 TD in the last 3 weeks. Because of this trend upwards, and the Falcons appearing to go the opposite way, the Bears ML looks pretty strong.

Kadarius Toney un4.5 receptions @ LAC (+115)

We know the guy is talented, we know he is fast. But the hype warranted everywhere needs to pump the brakes just a touch. For someone who was "not bothering to learn the playbook" with the Giants, we are awfully quick to assign him a monster game by default because of the injuries to JuJu and Hardman? I'm not buying this, it looks like a pretty obvious trap... or he'll have 5 catches and 75 yards by the first quarter and I'll look silly... This feels more like a ground and pound game to me tonight because of the injuries everywhere.

Jaylen Warren ov23.5 rushing yards VS CIN (-125)

The plan is to get Najee more carries now, allegedly, according to Mike Tomlin. However, I am going to fully exploit this low line on Warren until it adjusts properly or I am proven wrong.