Football Bets Week 12

Football Bets Week 12

Kurt Kuklewicz

Kind of middling around there last week and for a bit, it's about time we get back to winning some big units. I dissected all the games tomorrow with 4 great prop plays so that you don't have to! All plays are -115 or greater odds.

Kenneth Walker ov76.5 rushing yards (-115)

Kenny Walker looks like a lock to win the rookie of the year award (assuming there is no last second surge for Dameon Pierce or Chris Olave). The Raiders are allowing 122.9 rushing yards a game on average, and the Seahawks don't really go with a lot of spell plays for Walker. He actually is a Pete Carroll approved running back that gets carries. In a lot of ways he reminds me of Marshawn for this team. The Raiders aren't exactly doing much to stop their opponents, and it appears that Josh McDaniels could have lost the locker room already and be out of a job very soon. Even Melvin Gordon and the rest of the Broncos running backs put up over 90 yards rushing on them last week. Prior to that week, Jonathan Taylor had 147 rushing yards on 22 attempts. The Raiders defense is very exploitable, and Kenneth Walker is a power runner that should match up nicely here.

Robert Woods un37.5 receiving yards (-110)

Woods has a measly 37.5 yard line to hit this week, but look a little closer and you'll notice that he only amassed this number in just 1 match out of the last 7 weeks. Last week he did well against the Pack, but Trey Burks also chipped in with a lot of work. In fact, it seems like most of the passing offense will inevitably go through him as the Titans progress throughout the season. The Bengals are a middling rush defense that are likely to have two of their best weapons out on offense, Chase and Mixon. This is obviously going to mess with their chances of converting 1st downs and keep their offense off the field. This equals a great game script for Derrick Henry. I would be surprised if Woods gets more than 4 targets in this game. His days of being a deep threat are done.

Trevor Lawrence ov235.5 passing yards (-115)

T-Lawrence has been kind of easy to predict his passing output oddly enough. He plays well against the worst of pass defenses (ex. Kansas City, Washington, Houston) , and doesn't do well against the best (ex. Indy, Denver, Philly). Baltimore is a bottom 10 pass defense, that was the absolute worst at one point very recently in the season. However, they had a bye already and stopped some of the bleeding in their pass defense recently (Baker Mayfield was just what the doctor ordered!) They allow over 37 passing attempts per game, and I could see the Jags having to pass the ball around a bit to compete with the Ravens offense.

Randall Cobb ov3.5 receptions (+125)

A lot of the attention in the passing game for the Packers has been going to Christian Watson (and maybe rightfully so), as he has 5 TDs total in the last two weeks. As much as I hate to say it, as I am an avid Watson owner in at least 40% of my fantasy football leagues, this is not going to continue. Watson only has 8 receptions in this span, so it's unlikely that he will keep catching these high percentage REC to TD plays. Who does he think he is? Gabe Davis? Randy Moss on Thanksgiving with the 3 catches for 3 TDs? Look deeper, and you'll notice that an old friend of Aaron Rodgers has been getting a lot of the hard work throughout the season. Last week Cobb had 6 targets, but made sure to cash in on every single target with a total of 6 receptions. The Eagles have been exposed recently by the Commanders and the Colts, and I do believe that the Pack are going to sling the ball around at least a little bit. Book on the old vet, Cobb to get 4+ receptions.