Football Bets Week 13
Football Bets Week 13
Kurt Kuklewicz
In the past few weeks, I've only been taking 4 plays a week roughly. However, week 13 has me excited for a few more plays. Here's everything I like for week 13. They are all player props.
David Bell ov20.5 receiving yards (-120)
David Bell makes the list again, but this time he has a much greater quarterback throwing him the football. Bell is not being buried in the lineup. In fact, if you look at his snap count, he has still been around 60-65% of plays in the last 2-3 weeks. Watson is not shy to throw to the slot receiver (think of a few games that Keke Coutee had in Houston). We could be on the verge of a David Bell breakout within a few weeks. If you have the space for him in a deep fantasy football lineup, I'd consider adding him. He just needs to get involved a little more in the passing game, and I believe he will shine.
Isiah Pacheco ov59.5 rushing yards (-105)
Pacheco has been trending upward, and while Cincinnati has been above average in the running defense, don't expect this game to be a gun-slingin' Mahomes vs Burrows matchup that we got in the playoffs last year. In fact, the Chiefs are hurting again at WR options. Toney is out (surprise, surprise) and Hardman is on IR. JuJu missed two weeks ago with an injury and also had an illness this week, although he is off the injury report for today. Pacheco has finally been getting a little more responsibility in this offense. In the past 3 weeks, he's had 22 rushing attempts, 15 and 16 while combining for 258 rushing yards total (or roughly 86 per game). I don't care how crowded the backfield is, give me Pacheco today for the over.
Lamar Jackson un0.5 interceptions (-135)
This is a confusing line for a few reasons. Lamar has 7 interceptions for the season, but has only thrown 1 in the last 5 games. Denver is the 6th worst team in the league for interceptions (6 total). Denver has an average run defense in terms of yards allowed per game, and attempts allowed per game. Gus Edwards is healthy. The Ravens don't pass the ball much. They have the 5th fewest passing attempts and passing yards in the league. They should be ahead in this game with no threat of serious offense for Russ and the Broncos. I don't think Lamar will have many attempts to warrant serious worry of an interception. It will likely be a big day for Gus Bus and Kenyan Drake (and probably Lamar himself as well).
Mike White un258.5 passing yards (-115)
How dare we fade the great and legendary Mike White this week against a poor pass defense! Okay, hear me out... the Vikings have a respectable amount of interceptions at 10 for this season. The public (and ALL the Twitter HYPE BOYS) are all over Mike White... this is not lining up to be pretty. Remember Kadarius Toney SZN when he got traded to the Chiefs? Remember Darrell Henderson SZN after week 1 when Cam Akers got like 5 touches and people were putting him as a legit top 5 RB against the Falcons just cause of the situation and the matchup? How's that look now? A great situation does not always equal great results. The Jets had a great matchup against the Bears last week, who were without their rising star, Justin Fields. There wasn't a lot of pressure on Mike last week. The Vikings may have a dicey passing defense in terms of yardage. However, keep in mind that this is a 9-2 team. They are being coached extremely well right now, and there's a chance that White can have a bit of a blowup game here. I think his passing yards are a little more fair at around 235 or 240. The public keeps pushing his line up tho. Give me the under.
Treylon Burks ov3.5 receptions (-140)
Burks is trending up and continues to be a big part of the passing game in the last few weeks. Robert Woods has faded a bit and can't get more than 35 receiving yards a game any longer. On the opposite side of the field today, A.J. Brown is looking for a revenge game against his former team, while the Titans would like to show off their talented receiver that they were able to take because of the A.J. Brown trade. The game script does favor the Eagles getting up early as the Titans have one of the worst passing defenses in the league. The Titans may have no choice but to fade Henry and pass the ball to compete for a needed win. I could see Burks getting a few slants or quick hits, screens, shovel passes to get him involved.
George Pickens ov45.5 receiving yards (-125)
Pickens has been picking up the slack since Claypool was traded away to the Bears. Today, he has a fantastic matchup to make some noise against the Falcons. In the past two weeks, Pickens has received 12 targets, totaling over 140 yards receiving. Honestly, Diontae Johnson has been somewhat of an afterthought now. It seems like the coaching staff for the Steelers want to see what they have with Pickens. In my opinion, we are looking at a slow takeover as Pickens becoming the number 1 receiver by the end of the year. It's just a matter of time. Next season, I expect him to be a top 25 WR off the board in fantasy football leagues when it is all said and done.
Kenneth Walker un74.5 rushing yards (-110)
Understand this about the Rams. Their season may be a complete failure after winning the SuperBowl last year. They are pretty old in a couple of places, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald have teased retirement at one point or another. Even Sean McVay had a weird teasing with retirement at one point. They have a bunch of missing picks in the sacrifice to win it all last year. Cam Akers looks like he is no longer his true self, Darrell Henderson was waived. Van Jefferson has been locked up to IR for majority of the season and is just getting back to full speed now. Wolford is the quarterback this week. This team is a MESS. However, their run defense is still stout (top 5) and Kenneth Walker has been inefficient with his rushing attempts lately in the grand scheme of things. While he is still getting touchdowns on a near weekly basis and multi-digit rushing attempts, he's averaged the following yards per carry in the last two games; 1.7 and 1.86. Pete Carroll is not a very patient man, and the fact that Travis Homer stole some snaps last week (20+%) is not a very good sign for Walker if he continues to be inefficient. Even though Homer is out today, DeeJay Dallas is still available.