Bets Audit Week Ending 02/27
Hockey BETS AUDIT 02/21 - 02/27
Kurt Kuklewicz
Even Steven (I know the picture is of Kucherov, you'll see why later). This week was a complete roller coaster with 0-3 performances, 5-1, 1-4 and a 3-0 win (with parlay). It's funny because sometimes you have an amazing night, and go 5-1 and think you do this professionally for life. Then you go 0-3 the next day, and end up feeling like a complete fool. Emotional control is definitely getting better, but perhaps we were TOO conservative this week. That one big parlay boosted us for sure, and this was great instinct to bet all the picks on one whim like this additionally to a parlay. Let's analyze:
Record of pick'ems: 14-14
Profit with pick'ems: $1.55
Parlay Bet Record 1-2
Profit with parlay bets: $67.29
Overall profit: $68.84 or about 6.9 units, nice!
Record on player props: 13-12
Over player props: 9-6
Under player props: 2-5
Anytime goal scorer: 2-1
Record on game lines / team or game props: 1-2
Last-minute adds: 2-0
Downfalls of the week:
Horrendous under player props (like horrendously awful, almost New Jersey turn-pike at rush hour level bad)
Avoided game props in times of great desperation
Some bets were more aggressive than they needed to be
It's pretty obvious to see that we were cursed with our under bets. Here's the breakdown of what happened on each under bet that missed this week.
Blake Wheeler under 2.5 shots. 1 shot in 1st period, logs the final and third shot with just 2 minutes and change remaining in the game.
Taylor Hall under 0.5 points against Colorado: 3 assists
Connor Brown under 0.5 points against Minnesota: 2 assists
Elias Pettersson under a point against Calgary: 2 goals, 1 assist, 2 power-play points, 4 shots, 1 short-handed goal
Cam Atkinson under 0.5 points: 1 assist in the first 11 seconds against Washington. Absolutely shameful, but at least very comical. Follows up with a goal in the first period.
I have accepted that I am not great with game props, given my recent record. However, I maybe shy away from making these bets when the chips are down. I need to analyze these bets a little better. Player props can be random. For instance, if a player gets benched or injured that really effects the end result.
Strengths of the week:
Good instincts
Good logic with anytime goal scorer bets
Last minute adds were profitable and 2-0
The decision to parlay the 3-0 bet on Wednesday was great instinct. It just felt very strong for some reason. I really celebrated on that last shot on goal for Kucherov to clinch the win (which was an empty net goal at 19:56 of the 3rd period). It was a much needed break. The anytime goal scorers have really been working well for us, that puts us to 5-1 in the last two weeks. Additionally, the timing of some bets (Guentzel under 3.5 shots and Fox over 1.5 shots) was well executed on Twitter. Some lines you have to watch at the last minute, or make an audible late. There is no shame cashing out at near even rate and making a change. Not everything has to be "diamond hands" with your bets.