Bets Audit Week Ending 03/20
Hockey Bets Audit 03/14-03/20
Kurt Kuklewicz
This marks the 5th week in a row that we have profit on the pick'ems, and also are above .500 winning percentage on them. With the trade deadline passed, some players will probably have their lines tinkered around with. This should make for some interesting value bet sniping. We will be on the prowl for good betting opportunities. This is how we fared last week:
Record of pick'ems: 13-11
Profit with pick'ems: $23.65 (or +2.36 units)
Parlay Bet Record 0-1
Profit with parlay bets: $-20.00
Overall profit: $3.65
Record on player props: 10-8
Over player props: 9-6
Under player props: 1-1
Anytime goal scorer: 0-1
Record on game lines / team or game props: 3-3
Last minute adds: 1-1
Most profitable bet: Columbus ML (VS St Louis) +150
Downfalls of the week:
The combination bet on Thursday was an epic fail
Mediocre performance in game lines / game props
Honestly, there wasn't a lot that went wrong. However, that combination bet we did on Thursday was not very smart in hindsight. There were 3 +140 or greater lines we took in an "all combinations" parlay bet, and it was great when the Anders Lee hit his goal right away at around +220, but then we failed to cash in on the Preds -1.5 PL vs Philly and Buffalo ML vs Edmonton. We are winning some overall units, grinding out +2.3 in this case on the pick-em's overall for the week, but losing with parlay and big YOLO moonshot bets. I'll try to avoid these big ticket parlays this upcoming week and see how we can do. Game props are still what it is, unsuccessful or break even, overall. It's important to not give up on these entirely though.
Strengths of the week:
Finding value in betting odds
Logged a profit overall
Pick'ems keep grinding out mathematical gains, even if they are small wins
Great bounce back from the 2-5 day on Tuesday
Tinkering around with new process
Again, for the second week in a row, I felt comfortable with every line we took. This helped guide us to a profitable week. We are performing slowly and steady, but units are being won overall. Tuesday and Thursday were a bit messy, but sticking with the process has ensured us gains for the week. As for the actual process, I discovered a way to analyze lines on Draftkings, comparing them to see if our odds are of good or realistic value. I have some thoughts how to proceed this week with bets and it is cooking in my mind. I'll share the results with you next week. Until next time!