Bets Audit Week Ending 04/17

Hockey Bets Audit 04/11 - 04/17

Kurt Kuklewicz

God, how I love the empty net goal. It's the perfect stat pad. What better way to give us a 42 unit win from a risk-free bet in PA from Fanduel? Even when you're wrong more often than you are right, if you're right that one crucial time, it can be the difference that keeps you going. As you'll see, overall we went negative in the plays we chose but still managed a huge profit for the week. When you have risk-free bets, you need to take advantage of them to what you are comfortable with.

Record of pick'ems: 14-16

Profit with pick'ems: $344.84 (or 34.5 betting units!!!)

Record on parlays: 0-1

Profit with parlay: -$10.00

Overall profit: 333.84 (or 33.5 betting units)

Record on player props: 13-11

Over player props: 10-10

Under player props: 1-1

Anytime goal scorer: 2-1

Record on game lines / team or game props: 1-5

Most profitable bet: Brock Nelson ov0.5 G @ Montreal (+172) 24.5 units Fanduel

Big Unit Plays:

Brock Nelson ov0.5 G @ Montreal (+172) 24.5

Downfalls of the week:

  • Terrible game line / team prop bets

  • Mediocre performance on some player props

  • Risked too many units on goal scorers

  • Overall, negative performance on straight picks

  • Chasing too many promotions

It's no secret that we are terrible with game line / team prop bets, and this is why I mostly stick to player props. But in reality, I have to still keep doing it and learning when I can, because if I ignore it altogether, I'll never improve. I may need to water this down a bit though, otherwise I'm just going to pick 3 and 4 leg game parlays- so you guys can fade it for the easy W. The only missed goal scorer of the week we featured was Brad Marchand against the Penguins. However, I do admit that I wagered 5 units ($50) on this. He had 9 goals in like the last 10 games played against them and he was getting terrific odds on Fanduel. I overestimated the confidence here. Additionally, it's hard to complain with the Brock Nelson results, but it was very tough watching that game. If he didn't cash in the empty netter at the end, I would have put more pressure on myself to do well with the credited money from the risk-free bet (or likely be forced to hedge a bet on another site). Maybe next time, I won't shoot the moon for a huge +200 odds cash nearly with dozens of betting units. One last thing that I can improve on are the impulse to chase promotions that require a certain bet or wager. I did gain a few free bets this week, but I also felt pressured to play something maybe I wasn't entirely confident on. The failed parlay comes to mind.

Strengths of the week:

  • Odds and line shopping

  • Solid performance on under player prop bets and anytime goal scorer

  • BROCK NELSON

It's pretty obvious that a risk-free bet on Fanduel Sportsbook was our greatest strength. However, I would like to add one thing about Fanduel. It seems like it is by far the greatest online sportsbook that we have played around with for goal scorers. The day we took Brock Nelson to score, his odds were set at +172 on Fanduel. On Draftkings and most other sites, it was just +105. It may not seem like a huge difference, but when you are betting hundreds of dollars, this adds up very quickly. The difference can be literally thousands, depending on how much you are betting. The $244.59 wager on Fanduel paid us out a profit of a NICE $420.69 (yes that was intentional because I am a child). On Draftkings at +105, the profit would have been around $260-270 only. As you can see, when you have the option to shop around for odds, you need to be thorough and choose your best mathematical approach quickly. It does literally nothing for me to give Draftkings a -110 bet, when Barstool Sportsbook or Fanduel are +105. You have to be ruthless.