Hockey Bets 01/28
Hockey BETs 01/28
Kurt Kuklewicz
Yesterday, we learned a valuable lesson in not letting our emotions could our betting judgement. Today, it's all about making some profit. Business first. Let's get to today's slate using only logic and probability:
Red Wings at Penguins o6.5 goals (+100)
With Jarry coming off a strong night and overtime action yesterday, expect DeSmith to get the call tonight. He has definitely been beatable this year with a .886 SV% and 3.58 GAA. At the end of last season, Jarry got beat up pretty bad in playoffs and I was really unsure of his future with the Penguins. A quick change at goaltending coach has completely turned Jarry around this year it seems. DeSmith got short work in his last two starts with only 20 minutes and 33:49 before getting pulled, respectively. Also keep in mind that the Red Wings are coming off a 8 goals allowed performance against the Blackhawks...
NY Rangers Moneyline vs. Wild (+125)
Yes, it's true that today is the day that number 30 gets raised to the rafters. But that alone doesn't mean that the Rangers will win tonight. They are simply that good at home (13-3-2), and add the boost of the fans from a Henrik royal rumble entrance like "crowd pop", and I really like this bet tonight. Igor is in net, and despite all of the early morning advice I've seen to roll Minnesota Wild players in daily fantasy, he is 7-0 in his last 7 starts and 10-0-1 at home this season. Just a heads up that Adam Fox is going to miss tonight's game, and I still think it's a bit risky. Overall it's worth the upside of the +125 on a night where the Rangers will play hard defense and goaltending to make their boy Hank proud. If I was to parlay this pick with a bunch of other plays tonight, I would opt the route of going the +1.5 puck line, but I am not.
1st Period / End of Regulation Game Parlay (ARI period 1 / BOS end of reg.) (+1200)
The Bruins have scored 3 or more goals in the last 10 out of 12 games. Furthermore, they have scored 20 goals in their last 4 road games. But there's an interesting number here that's worth looking into. I have seen the Boston Bruins play some of these games as a resident of New England and honestly, they always look pretty sluggish to start the game to me. I've seen them taking penalties or getting into bad situations to start (like against Carolina's 1st period flurry of goals). When I looked into it further, they have been down in the first period 10-3 overall in the last 5 games and they are still winning more often than not. While the Coyotes haven't been great (and that's a reason I'm taking a shot on them squandering an early lead), they have recently slugged it out early in the game against Pittsburgh and New York Rangers and then absolutely got wrecked. I'm not saying this is a slam dunk, but I'll take a shot and a prayer on it ($4.20 for the memes) following the pattern of stats for some huge upside.
Two Leg Parlays:
Over 0.5 Points Patrice Bergeron @ Arizona (-220)
Over 2.5 Shots Joe Pavelski VS Washington (-130)
2 pick parlay +157
Joe Pavelski is on a tear and still chugging with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz on the first line. He has 3 shots or more in 9 out of the last 11 games. Keep the streak alive, Joe. Pasta has been doing all the scoring recently, but we have been burnt on the anytime goal scorer recently, and I still like Bergeron the most out of all Bruins to get a point tonight. It likely will be an apple, but let's just keep it simple here to get some momentum on these parlay.
Over 0.5 Points Evgeni Malkin VS Detroit (-240)
Over 3.5 Shots Nazem Kadri @ Chicago (-135)
2 Pick Parlay +146
The point per game Geno that we all love is back! He has a good shot at putting up a power play point here in reality, but Geno is SCORE right now. With MacKinnon out, SOMEONE is going to have to shoot the puck, and Kadri will definitely be a staple on that top line. Kadri has been consistently shooting over 4 shots a game for some time now. He also just had a 7 shot game against Chicago 2 games ago.
If you combine both parlay, you get +534 odds. For a 4 leg parlay though, the odds just aren't that great to fight the randomness or something like players getting benched, injuries, bad game scripts, etc.