Let's talk about risk. Because last night, we took some risk and that didn't pan out. I'm sticking to the guns- it is okay to take risks still. But risk is worth taking when you are getting good odds. You can have 30 wins of pick-ems, but if it is all moneyline -300 heavy favorites does it really matter that much? Did you make enough money on those that when you lose money you cover your losses? I'm not backing down, trust the process. When we have numbers and logic to back us up, we will not shy away from good odds. Here's today's picks:

Anaheim Ducks -1.5 Puck Line @ Ottawa (+190)

For the most part, the 1.5 puck line is set on all games for a reason. The great empty net goal. If a team is up 1 goal late in the game, there's always the random chance of the empty netter, give or take. Let's evaluate the state of the Senators currently. Josh Nooris is out tonight. Drake Batherson is out for possibly months. Alex Formenton has been carrying the team on his back for the last 2 or 3 games. Thomas Chabot is anchoring down 30+ minutes against the Carolina Hurricanes. With Artem Zub, Nick Holden and whatever XP fodder practice squad guys they could find, the defense is a mix and match grab-bag. Something's gotta give soon. I think this game will be decided in regulation for the Ducks and Trevor Z and the boys, and I'm fairly confident in this one today.

LA Kings Moneyline End of Regulation @ Philadelphia (-110)

The Flyers have not won a game since December 29th. Eventually, they will get a win, but I will not be the one to take that risk. The moneyline for the Flyers at home is tempting at +140 though. Keep in mind that there is a blizzard going on, and those rowdy Philly fanatics might not be able to make the game. Gritty might be working the concession stands in this game, serving (or more likely drinking) all the beer. This should give the 3 kids wearing LA shirts in the stands a break from some punches, I mean harassment. 72% of betters according to MGM at the time of this article were betting on LA moneyline. However, 52% of the money is on the Flyers. This is following the formula of a perfect Vegas temptation. Since Vegas always wins, I'll stay on the other side with smart bettors. The last part of the equation to figure out is if I think this game will go to overtime, and I do not believe that to be the case. Kings win 4-2 or 3-1 in this one, you heard it here!

Shea Theodore Power Play Point @ Tampa (+330)

Shea Theodore has 10 Power Play Points this year in 40 games for Vegas and is still anchored as a fixture on that top powerplay. Tampa Bay is 5th in the league in Penalty Minutes and take 4 penalties a game on average. This should be a chippy game if both teams are trying to win (where hopefully the refs actually call the penalties). Tampa also rank 15th in Penalty Kill numbers with 80.0% which is right about in the middle of the league. It's a calculated risk where our bet can be multiplied by 3.3 profit.

Calgary Flames -1.5 puck line vs Vancouver (+125)

The under is a trendy pick here as the Flames have given up the 3rd least amount of goals in the league. Given the recent offensive struggles of the Canucks, I like the puck line in favor for the Flames a little better. Thatcher Demko could be back tonight, but he might be a little rusty given the amount of days he had off. Against a surging Flames team that have scored 22 goals in the last 5 games, this could be a recipe for disaster.

2 Pick Game Parlay

Hurricanes Moneyline vs. Devils -290

Panthers Moneyline vs. San Jose -300

2 Pick Parlay -127

Easy money is nice for one pick-em's, but when you can combine two picks of out of division play betting with the home teams as heavy favorites, you can boost your profit.