Bets Audit Week Ending 03/06

Hockey Bets Audit 02/28 - 03/06

Kurt Kuklewicz

Parlays for days! The photo finish on the 8PM parlay we wrote for Sunday was a remarkable way to cap our week off. I'm pretty sure I woke up the whole neighborhood with the complete rehearsal of Pete Weber's "WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE? I AM" real life bowling celebration turned legendary meme (please look it up on YouTube now if you don't know what I'm talking about). We also silently went .500 or greater for the 3rd week in a row with our single pick'ems.

Record of pick'ems: 14-12

Profit with pick'ems: $32.04

Parlay Bet Record 3-4

Profit with parlay bets: $255.79

Bonus Bets Profit: -$3.75

Overall profit: $284.08 or about 28.9 units, nice!

Record on player props: 14-10

Over player props: 12-6

Under player props: 1-2

Anytime goal scorer: 1-2

Record on game lines / team or game props: 0-2

Downfalls of the week:

  • Still too stubborn and bet under player props

  • After winning some big parlays, there was perhaps too much money liberally spent on bets that were considered long-shots

  • Greed

It's easy to see that this week was a great week for us, and it was hard to come up with many downfalls. However, I could come up with 3. First of all, I really have to get away from under bets. Calle Jarnkok destroyed a 3 leg parlay we had because we added in a -165 under 0.5 points leg for just an extra +200 in the odds. It wasn't the wisest decision, and it cost us. Another issue is liberally spending money after huge wins on long-shot bets, that almost never pan out. For example, the Eichel hat-trick and Vegas money-line same game parlay bet for their match-up with Ottawa was just an outright waste of $4.20 (I do think Eichel is due for at least a big 2 goal game soon though). I also spent $2 on Cole Caufield for the rookie of the year at +6000 odds... so yeah, also not wise considering he would need to run the table with points per game the rest of the way. Ultimately, I think this is triggered from greed, which can be deadly (it is a deadly sin after-all). Winning a huge +1110 odd parlay makes you feel invincible and you begin to think about winning thousands, not hundreds. This is usually a trap and attributes to other downfalls when gambling.

Strengths of the week:

  • Great research

  • Parlay performance unquestionably dominant

  • Finding good odds to maximize payout

  • Over player props were right every 2 out of 3 tries

Do I even need to say how well we performed and where we performed best? Perhaps the greatest thing I can attribute to the parlays was research. It took a little digging to discover that the Senators let up 5 power-play goals in their previous 4 games, for example. But this led to the best payouts. Another thing that worked well were over player props, but also finding where there was good odds and value.