Football Bets Week 17

Football Bets Week 17

Kurt Kuklewicz

Week 17 is the mark where we are approaching the end of the season, and you need to be a little cautious about playing people on teams that may rest their starters for playoffs. Of course, there is still opportunity to find a few good gems. This week, because there is a lot of uncertainty and you never know who is gonna get hooked early, we are playing just a half unit on every play.

All plays are 0.5 units*

Travis Kelce ov0.5 receiving touchdowns (-110)

You won't be able to find this prop on Draftkings at great value unfortunately, since they like to juice the hell out of anytime TD scorers and then give you a "boost" if you combine 3 of them on one ticket. Kelce is reliable every week, and has a real chance to score on any pass play in the red-zone. It's been 4 weeks since he scored a TD and he still has managed 11 scores on the season. He's overdue, facing a controversial Denver team (who fired their head coach with just two weeks left in the season) and the Chiefs pass the ball around more against losing teams.

Saquon Barkley ov79.5 rushing yards (-120)

Give me King Quon against Jeff Saturday and the Colts any day of the week. If Foles continues to commit turnovers like he has been and taking big sacks, the Giants should manage huge clock possession totals this week.

Chuba Hubbard ov11.5 receiving yards (-120)

Hubba Chuba! Look at the recent game logs and performance chart. Hubbard has actually been a top 18 RB in fantasy football in 2 out of the last 3 weeks. He has been targeted 6 times and caught all 6 balls with a total of 77 yards. He was not targeted last week, but the game script was a bit different than today's will likely be. This is a huge match-up for both teams trying to make playoffs in a terrible division. Sam Darnold LOVES dumping the ball off though. Don't forget about this. Chuba should cash this in if he gets 3-4 targets today. Foreman will likely be scripted out of most passing work completely if the Panthers get down big at any point of the game today.

Carson Wentz ov0.5 interceptions (-105)

It's a shame that the Commanders have blundered away the last two games and now it has caused Ronny Boy to bench Taylor Heinicke. I can understand the switch, but I think it is the wrong call personally still. The team just doesn't play to the same standards when Wentz is QB. This doesn't look like just a "locker-room preference of who the guys prefer play" either. Wentz has been sacked 23 times in just 6 games started this season and also has 6 INT, averaging out to a pick a game. It's true that the Commanders have been preferring to run the ball when possible recently, but they still can't figure out that they need to get the ball to Brian Robinson almost exclusively. Rivera is still running his gadget run plays of Samuel in terrible situations and putting the team in a hole on early downs. It's forcing their hand a bit in the passing game. Heinicke's turnovers have cost them these two last games, but it's not like Wentz is known for being this great clock / game manager. We are just as likely to see a few more turnovers with Wentz in the game today. 1 INT at near even money is great value.

The Future: Kenny Pickett 200+ pass yards, 1+ Pass TD and Steelers to win (+425) (odds boost on Fliff)

I think this game is a bit of a toss-up tonight. The Steelers seem to have a knack of being mediocre throughout the season and winning a key game or two at the end of the season to clinch a playoff spot somehow. They are +110 to win tonight, with only a +1.5 spread, Lamar Jackson is confirmed to be out, so a win is definitely possible. Unfortunately, Pickett went out with a concussion during the last meeting against the Ravens, early in the game. There's not a lot of past data to go by obviously then for him, but during that game Mitch Trubisky did manage to throw 275+ yards passing and a TD toss and came within two points of winning the game. I'll gladly take a half unit for this value.