Bets Audit Week Ending 04/03
Hockey Bets Audit 03/28-04/03
Kurt Kuklewicz
After hitting a week where we were ice cold, the cold streak continued again this week, especially early on, when I was still maybe a little too aggressive with picks. However, the roller coaster would lead us to profitable days on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, and this saved another brutal week. This is how we fared last week:
Record of pick'ems: 17-18
Profit with pick'ems: $-7.56 or (- 0.76 betting units)
Record on player props: 13-13
Over player props: 12-12
Under player props: 0-0
Anytime goal scorer: 1-1
Record on game lines / team or game props: 4-5
Last minute adds: 3-1
Most profitable bet: Ehlers Anytime Goal (@ Toronto) +195
Downfalls of the week:
Bad performance on game / team lines
Slight loss of profit
Terrible early week performance
Powerplay point performance gave us negative units; some teams we took only had one powerplay opportunity
There's some things I wish I did better. Continuing to bet power-play points was maybe a little too stubborn after going 0-2 in the first two bets. Game lines again were a little shaky, especially after I went 3-0 in the first 3 selections. That means I went 1-5 in my last 5 selections. I really noticed that game lines are probably the hardest to get right consistently. I often had to rely on some really surgical and heavily researched player props to boost me back near the green. To be fair though, who would see the Isles playing on the road against the Rangers at home, and shutting them out 3-0? Although... is it really a road game for them? Hmm, that's an interesting question.
Strengths of the week:
Strong finish on the end of the week; catching hot again
Managed to go .500 on player props, even after a very unfavorable Tuesday that caused a lot of issues
The Vince Dunn (+600) line for a power-play point was insanely good value, and it gave me food for thought for some betting tools to look for
Trevor Zegras was great with shots; adding him pending Getzlaf's status proved to be very profitable
Limiting anytime goal scorers limited some impulse, and also limited negative gains
I had some dark days at the beginning of this cold streak, especially as it seemed we were starting to gain more followers and more momentum. As you can imagine, it is REALLY tough to come back to a 1-4 or 1-5 day, or even worse 0-5 (which I have done in the past), and post the RED X's to them on Twitter. It was nice to post the green check marks though at the end of the week. That was a great confidence booster, and gives me strong hope for next week as I continue to learn more and grow. The important thing was sticking in there, and to keep researching picks, trying not to get too discouraged. Often times, I went back to a replay of Trevor Zegras's shot line of over 2.5 shots. I feel like this is going to get raised or the odds will be lowered any-time now, and it will happen the game Getzlaf surprises us with a come-back to the line-up... making the under a smash play suddenly for Zegras. But then he will actually keep the pace no problem, I'm sure then. Who knows? The replay bets are nice like Caufield on his initial run after St. Louis was named the coach, Marner during his 10 game goal streak, etc. There will come a time that the trend discontinues though, so to keep blindly betting something is dangerous. Anytime goal scorers have a lot of times where you can find great value in a player. In the long run, however, I feel that they are a little unprofitable, unless you luck into one at great value. They are still fun to play though, but taking guys like Jack Roslovic proved to me that you can get a little too cute for +400 odds. Also, can we talk about first time goal-scorers and how insanely hard they are? I have tried them with tests before or super low bets, and they almost never hit. You have to get the player right, but also the team right that is going to score first. I feel the standard +800 odds for someone like Ovechkin is even insanely overrated. If you bet 1 unit at those odds, you only net 8 units, even though I'm sure Ovechkin has rarely scored first this season. I noticed that Ovie hasn't been first goal-scorer in over 30 games now, dating back to January 16th against the Canucks. This proves that the first / last scoregoaler bet is insanely hard and doesn't actually deliver true odds to what happens realistically. Something I noticed was that Kuznetsov had about 4 or 5 dating back to this stretch though.