Bets Audit Week Ending 04/24
Hockey Bets Audit 04/18 - 04/24
Kurt Kuklewicz
Last week was a pretty odd week. At the beginning of it, we were getting crushed. Then we proceeded to cash big on a sweep and a big parlay in one night. The streak continued with a 2 day winning streak and we were sitting pretty at a 6-0 straight run. Then there was a rough fall from grace on Saturday, but it didn't end up being two costly. Actually two parlay were cashed, but it felt like a roller coaster of a week still, in general. I added a section for shot props here, because as you will see, this attributed to a lot of losses. Here is our audit:
Record of pick'ems: 12-15-1
Profit with pick'ems: -$29.31 (or -2.9 betting units)
Record on parlays: 2-1 (1 loser was a $10 free bet)
Profit with parlay: $91.59 (or 9.2 betting units)
Overall profit: 62.28 (or 6.2 betting units)
Record on player props: 10-14
Over player props: 9-11
Under player props: 1-1
Anytime goal scorer: 0-2
Shot props: 1-8 ouch!
Record on game lines / team or game props: 2-1-1
Most profitable bet: 4 pick parlay +889
Caufield ov0.5 pts
Aho ov2.5 shots
Zacha ov0.5 pts
Barzal ov0.5 pts
Downfalls of the week:
- Very awful shot prop bets
- Lack of consistency
- Distractions
The obvious killer last week was with shot props. I had a few "shoe-ins", that I basically wrote off as easy wins, and they missed miserably. MacKinnon ov4.5 shots against Winnipeg is something that he has been doing forever. He literally had a 13+ shot game against them or something ridiculous this year, look it up. Last time we bet on him against Winnipeg with over 4.5 shots, he got them within the first 25 minutes of the game and that was a 20 unit bet from Barstool's risk-free bet. Consistency was maddening this week. There were some things that kept me inconsistent and possibly distracted, like a close fantasy hockey championship that I ended up losing. Thanks a lot, Casey DeSmith! Never in my life was I so sad to see a 53 save shutout from my favorite team. That was rough, my opponent basically picked him up and played him starting for that game. It really turned the tide in the battle... But enough of my sad stories. I also have to realize that I can just punt or keep it light on some days if I ever need to. That includes days where there are 13+ games going on at once. Although it would be very tough restraint it would require.
Strengths of the week:
- Over point totals
- Luck with two parlays hitting
On some days, when I have a lot of over plays I will put a minimal bet in on a 3-4 leg parlay with my bet. It's basically just to boost the odds up when I feel particularly good with some bets. I have to be honest, for some reason I did not feel great betting with the 2nd parlay (the player props), that eventually hit. I was down a couple of units and was just trying to boost, which is probably a bad idea- but it ended up working. I know that these parlay won't hit all of the time though, and I will need to continue being careful with them. Point totals were absoluetly amazing. I only whiffed on 3 or so out of 11 played. I'm really not sure what happened with the shot bets last week, I'm still looking into that, and I will try to be more careful betting them moving forward, for now at least.