Bets Audit Week Ending 03/13
Hockey Bets Audit 03/07-03/13
Kurt Kuklewicz
This marks the 4th week in a row that we have profit on the pick'ems, and also are above .500 winning percentage on them. Some parlay and bonus bets left us disappointed, but we live to fight another day. Here is the breakdown:
Record of pick'ems: 16-15
Profit with pick'ems: $18.29
Parlay Bet Record 0-1
Profit with parlay bets: $-10.00
Bonus Bets Record: 0-1
Bonus Bets Profit: -$10.00
Overall profit: $-1.31
Record on player props: 14-15
Over player props: 10-11
Under player props: 2-0
Anytime goal scorer: 2-3
Record on game lines / team or game props: 2-0
Last minute adds: 0-2
Most profitable bet: Elias Lindholm (ATG vs Washington) +160
Downfalls of the week:
Failure to take more time and effort with betting game lines
Overall mediocre week
Terrible last minute bets
Overs were shaky with player shots; I felt most were a struggle
The last minute adds are probably best attributed to FOMO or maybe some type of shakiness I feel in my bets. I often feel like if my bets aren't going to hit, I should hedge them with more bets, which is just a wrong decision. In other times, when there is a just game or two on the schedule for the night, I often feel obligated to bet on one, which is also not good. I'll be careful with that moving forward. It's tough playing a bunch of player props, when you need shots, for instance. Tarasenko had 1 shot through the first 30 minutes of the game only, and we needed 3 total from him on Sunday night. This can be disheartening in a way and make it feel like your bets are out of reach. Maybe it's best to just set it and forget it? Check it out in the morning? I'm not sure.
Strengths of the week:
Finding good odds to maximize payout
Game lines were actually undefeated at 2-0
Under lines were also undefeated at 2-0
Anytime goal scorer is still strong and profitable despite going 2-3 there
Obviously some lines felt like they were pretty good to me, otherwise I would not have bet them. The -140 on Ryan Suter scoring under 0.5 points against NYR even felt pretty strong. Even some of the missed bets, like the bonus Hintz PPP against Nashville. This was still set at a great line and I felt pretty confident with it. Under lines are very tough to watch, but they cannot be forgotten. You basically sweat it out the most, but I feel that they are statistically the better play more often than not. I wish I would have focused a little more on some game lines. I perhaps was a little stubborn there because past performance deterring me.