Hockey Bets 02/11

hockey bets 02/11

Kurt Kuklewicz

Recovering from an 0-3 night is a tall task. How will we achieve this? Well first, I think it's very important to understand that you do not bet more than you are willing to lose. Because let's face it, this all runs through Vegas (or maybe the mob), and the house always wins. You may get a few nice W's here and there, but for the most part if you pick random numbers and just play any game in Vegas, it is designed for you to lose greater than 50% of the time. Even in roulette, they have 0 and double 00 which doesn't account into odds and evens or black and red. Sure, we can use logic and other type of analytics like current trends in sports, players that are hot and cold for over / under bets, past history and recent games and often times it seems like a virtual certainty we will win. That is how confident I felt last night with our bets. Alas, it just didn't work out. Seeing a 6-0 win over the Bruins and you would definitely think it would involve an assist or at least a point for Tony DeAngelo. However, his ice time was drastically reduced after he got in a fight in the first period with Charlie McAvoy. By the end of the game, they just didn't need to shift him out there anymore, they were up so big. It happens. Matt Murray absolutely refused to be the goalie that Sidney Crosby would log #500 on. He stopped 42/43 shots last night in a defensive battle last night. I am now thinking Sid will bring it back to Pittsburgh against Philly next Tuesday to sink his long-time rivals with another insult to injury. It will be glorious to see Flyer fans melt down to this, but that's a different story. Jordan Binngington working a 3-2 lead against the Devils, happens to give up 3 goals in the last 10 minutes of the game. It happens. It's important to understand this. So we know step 1 is never betting more than you can afford to lose. Step 2 is accepting that random things will happen, and nothing is truly "a lock" in sports betting. Finally, step 3 is to never double down or try to bet big to balance out or offset your losses. If we took 4 crazy 3 leg parlay here tonight, I'm sure that would almost certainly be a mistake and just put us into an even deeper hole. The same can be said if we tried to pick like 5 or 6 bets just to balance out our week above .500. Like Mr. T said, "be cool, fool". Tunnel Vision, back with the eyes on the prize we go:

Tonight's bets

Tyler Seguin o2.5 shots on goal VS Winnipeg (+110)

Tyler Seguin has 4 points in his last 3 games and is averaging 3.1 shots a game going back to his last 10. His faceoff percentage has been over 50% in every single game dating back back 10. He also is on the top powerplay and logs greater than 50% of Powerplay time mostly every night. Dallas simply need him in key situations. Hellebuyck shut the door on Minnesota Tuesday night, but the Jets kept out of the penalty box, giving Minnesota just one powerplay chance. They basically loopholed around their terrible penalty kill by just staying out of the box almost completely. These things tend to even out over time, so keep an eye out for Seguin and the boys on the power play tonight. Finally, what sold me on this bet tonight is Seguin's history vs the Jets. He had 5 shots on net the one time they played against each other this season. Also, dating back the last 10 games against Winnipeg, we can see that Seguin loves to shoot against this opponent with over 4.9 shots a game. In fact, only one game he had 2 shots in those 10 games and that was in the 2018-19 season.

Anaheim Ducks moneyline VS Seattle (-160)

We all know how much I love the Ducks. They are constantly on this betting page, and that's because I still think Vegas refuses to believe they are for real this year. They are for real. Trevor Zegras is probably going to win the rookie of the year award and if they make the playoffs, or especially win the division, Dallas Eakins deserves the Jack Adams award for making this Cinderella team work. And for as long as they keep getting doubted, Stat Glitchers will be there taking advantage of the lines they are getting. Seattle comes to town today, with the 2nd lowest amount of road wins in the league (6).