Football Bets Week 10
Football Bets Week 10
Kurt Kuklewicz
Last week, we ripped off a 4-0 run with player props. Today, there are 5 player props we take.
Kenneth Walker Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-120) VS TB
There are many things certain in life. Kenneth Walker scoring a Touchdown each week is a new trend we must accustom ourselves to. He has a terrific streak of scoring a touchdown in 5 straight games. In this timeline, he stacked 7 total rushing touchdowns. He has yet to record a receiving touchdown though, but could soon as his targets have been trending upward. Walker looks like a prime candidate for rookie of the year. It's best to keep riding this streak as long as possible, especially at near even money lines.
Jaylen Warren ov25.5 rushing yards (-120) VS NO
You should know me by now, I'm not usually a big believer of players that are getting a ton of public hype because of "a potential increase of usage" (*cough cough Kadarius Toney SZN, bro, bank on it!*). Understand that the Steelers offensive line is equivalent as using a foam bike helmet in a head on collision with a dump truck. However, using Najee Harris makes the offensive line look like using a paper mache helmet against a dump truck instead. Jaylen Warren has been getting a lot of attention from the media, as Mike Tomlin said they would look at reducing Najee's usage going forward. Najee is frustrating to watch now. I don't actually know if he has a run longer than 20 yards on the season. He has 108 attempts with just 3.3 yards per attempt. Considering that this line is pretty low to begin with, I am liking it with even 5-7 carries. If Warren gets anywhere near 10, this is easily a lock.
Gabriel Davis un45.5 receiving yards (-120) VS MIN
It pains me to admit this, but Gabe Davis might just be a bit over-hyped this season... Now, even though Josh Allen says he will play, there is a high chance he re-injures his elbow and needs to come out of the game. It's a very risky play to go with any Bills receiving overs. In 8 games this season, Davis has been very erratic, hitting this number 3/8 times (but he did have 171 yards receiving on 3 receptions against the Steelers). Something to keep in mind is that Davis is also not converting on a ton of his targets, with just 18 receptions on 38 targets. Hopefully, the Twitter comparisons to "Fancy MVS" is not true (well at least after this week).
Christian Kirk ov5.5 receptions (-115) @ KC
Kirk enters this week as the 9th ranked receiver in 0.5 PPR formats. We all saw that coming though, right?... Today, he draws Kansas City as his match-up, who allow the 7th most amount of receptions in the league. This includes a week where Malik Willis only completed 5 passes against them last week. Kirk and Trevor Lawrence look to have awesome chemistry together and today they will get a chance to prove that again. Kirk has 26 targets in the last 3 weeks, so this is a good opportunity for him, where they may need to play catch-up, coming in as nearly 10 point underdogs.
Sam Ehlinger un28.5 passing attempts (+100) @ LV
Jeff Saturday is the new coach of the Colts this week, and that puts a lot of variable factors that are hard to account for. But knowing what we know, in the past, he's a fan of running the football (see his viral argument with Peyton Manning against the Rams on Monday Night Football on YouTube). Also, we don't know that Ehlinger is even going to finish the game. He has not impressed in the first few starts of his career. After a few bad plays, Jeff could easily go a different direction and roll with Matt Ryan, for instance. However, this seems like a game to me that will be a low scoring affair, or at least a good running game script with Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor, who is allegedly healthy now.