Bets And Predictions Audit Round 1
Bets And Predictions Audit Round 1
Kurt Kuklewicz
Record of pick'ems: 13-16
Profit with pick'ems: $4.84 (or .48 betting units)
Record on parlays: 0-0
Profit with parlay: $0
Overall profit: -($10.97) *See Series Props below
Record on player props: 10-7
Over player props: 9-4
Under player props: 0-0
Anytime goal scorer: 1-3
Record on game lines / team or game props: 3-9
Live Bets: 0-1* I made a $10 +1100 bet on Oilers -1.5 puck line that hit, but I won't use it for tracking since I didn't post it before it cashed
Most profitable bet: Sidney Crosby Anytime Goal Scorer (+205)
Series Projections: (8-0) Complete clean sweep
Series Prop Bets (2-4)
Most Goals H2H Kucherov to score more than Tavares (-120) 1 unit
Kucherov Most Goals in the series (+900) 1 unit
Frank Vatrano Top Goalscorer Series (+2000) .375 unit
Most Goals H2H Perron to score more than Eriksson Ek (-115) 1 unit
St. Louis Blues +1.5 Games (-160) 1 unit
Leon Draisaitl Top Goalscorer of the Series (+250) .7 unit
Profit: -$15.81
In hindsight, if I bet a full unit on everything, I would have lost a lot more. I thought these performed worse than it actually was though, so that's a positive at least. Kucherov seems to be dealing with an injury or something, but I was pretty confident he would finish 1st or 2nd in scoring in the series. Tavares also turned it up at the end of the series, so that sunk the H2H matchup. If the Blues choked here, I would have been off much worse. If I could go back in time, I would probably reduce the amount I spent on the +200 or greater bets. A lotto ticket is exactly that- dependent upon luck.
Downfalls:
- Horrendous game props
- Poor bets taken in the series props that were too long of odds
- Completely ignoring under player props
I'm not really going to go into where we went wrong, it's pretty obvious. It's playoff hockey baby! Anything can happen. Also, I need to maybe consider under player props.
Strengths of the week:
- Great player props
- Great discipline against doing many parlay bets
I will try my best to focus on mostly player props (without going HAM on anytime goal scorers) in the future of these playoffs. I will add that player shot props are much easier to hit when there is a period (or three) of extra hockey. I will probably completely avoid under shot props because of this, unless very confident.