Round 1 playoff matchups in the West are set, which means another round of predictions! It feels like the West is a "heavy favorite preferred" conference in all the matchups, but I have a few curveballs up my sleeve (well one in particular maybe). On a side note, I do like how the new division format makes it more interesting with brackets. However, part of me misses the good ol' days of 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, etc. I feel like we get a lot of the same match-ups now. The Avalanche aren't playing the Blues this year though in the first round, which is a change-up from like the last 8 years, it feels like. Here are my series predictions, prop bets and things to consider for the Western conference this year.

West Playoff Matchups

Colorado vs Nashville

Predicted Winner: Colorado wins 4-2

Bets taken: None

Consider this: Cale Makar has 11 points in the last 5 games against Nashville, including 3 goals and 8 assists. He also has 5 PPP in this time, so be prepared to look at PPP lines every night for Colorado. I would probably avoid it to begin the series and see how the refs are reacting in the playoffs this year though. The Preds were the most penalized team for at least 3/4 of the season. Matt Duchene has good numbers against his former team, and he will definitely score at least 3 goals this series. Nashville will need to match Colorado's fire-power. Saros is a bit of a question mark with his injury and Rittich has not done very well in relief. This is all great news for overs in most game lines, unless they are set at like over 7.5 goals. Finally, I like MacKinnon for any shot props. He has over 6 per game in the last 3 years against Nashville, which is insane.

Series Analysis: My initial impulse was to take Colorado with flying colors, but I think the Preds will win at least a game or two after further investigation. My concerns are with Darcy Kuemper, who has only 1 win and ZERO quality starts in the last 5 games he has played this year. He also has very uncertain playoff performance. It's true that you don't play many playoff games as a member of the Arizona Coyotes, but he needs to settle on a team with a tremendous amount of pressure on them this year, as Stanley Cup favorites. We have no idea really how he will react, and I will just give him the benefit of the doubt as a veteran goaltender, and say he will do at least above average in this series.

Minnesota vs St. Louis

Predicted Winner: St. Louis wins 4-0

Bets taken:

1. Most Goals H2H Perron to score more than Eriksson Ek (-115)

2. St. Louis Blues +1.5 Games (-160)

The H2H goalscorer was a pretty juicy bet for me. Comparing their season totals, and you have two pretty similar stat-lines with goals. Eriksson Ek has 26 and Perron has 27. However, Perron also has more assists (27 compared to 24) and less games played this season (67 compared to 77). If you look at team history, Perron has over a point per game pace against Minnesota in the last 10 meetings. There are a total of 6 goals scored and 14 points for him. These games are pretty recent too, given that the two teams played each other at least 7 times last year. Eriksson Ek has just 3 points and 2 goals in their last 10 meetings total. Obviously, the +1.5 games for St. Louis was a no-brainer for me, considering I have them projected to sweep the Wild. Unfortunately, the correct series score for the Wild to sweep Minnesota isn't really a profitable bet in my opinion. There is always uncertainty. For example, injuries can happen, covid, etc., and for just +1500, it's not worth betting an underdog to sweep the favorite at that line. The Blues -1.5 line is interesting at over +230, but again these lines don't seem as spicy as they should be to me. +1.5 I am definitely very comfortable with though and it gives us better protection for something unexpected.

Consider this: Rob Thomas finished the season with a point per game pace at 76 in 72 games played. I think he will find the twine often in this series, but I'm also expecting Ryan O'Reilly to have good numbers. He does score a lot historically on the Wild, with 7 in their last 14 meetings. He should be good for at least 2 goals this series, maybe 3 total if the series goes to 6 or 7 games. Torrey Krug has amazing numbers against the Blues, and I would try to take advantage when he is getting odds at or above +100 to score a point. On the Wild, I like Fiala to get above 2.5 shots on most nights. Unders are going to be tempting for Wild player props and also game props in my opinion in certain situations.

Series Analysis: Both teams are performing excellent in their last 10 games, with the Wild having a slight edge at 8-1-1. The Blues are coming in hot, as the second best goal scoring team in the last 10 with 47 goals scored, only 1 goal behind Tampa Bay. The Wild are actually 3rd with 42 scored, but have given up 5 less goals than the Blues. However, the Wild lost all 3 this year to the Blues. Additionally, they lost 6/8 last year, combining for a 2-9 record in the last 2 years against St. Louis. There's just something that seems superior with the Blues to me that I can't really put into words. When I look at the head to head stats, they all show very average and below-average numbers for the Wild.

Calgary vs Dallas

Predicted Winner: Calgary wins 4-2

Bets taken: None

Consider this: The power-play is lethal for Calgary, and as long as the refs are actually making calls, I would expect multiple goals scored on the power-play for the Flames this series. I like Tkachuk and Lindholm best to score points in all games. On Dallas, Joe Pavelski has a great track record of being a clutch playoff performer. He has a great chance to score a few goals this series, but also do not forget about Jamie Benn. Historically, he has high shooting rates versus Calgary, so look at his shot props when they are set over 2.5.

Series Analysis: Calgary has won the best matchup possible out of all teams. Given that the Stars have struggled offensively, they are averaging just 2.3 goals a game in their last 10. Calgary averages 4.0 goals a game in their last 10. The power-play for the Flames is deadly and lethal, but let's set the record straight on a few things. Dallas will squeak a game or two out because of Calgary's inexperience and youth. This time though, the Flames will live up to the hype and close the series out. We have seen them get upset a few years in the past but I have faith that they can go far this year. It's a bonus that they will have the easiest road to a conference finals compared to any other team, in my opinion. If they win this matchup, they will play Edmonton or LA in the 2nd round, who they have beat at least equal amount of times this season (2-2 vs EDM and 2-1 vs LA).

Edmonton vs Los Angeles

Predicted Winner: Edmonton wins 4-1

Bets Taken: Leon Draisaitl Top Goalscorer of the Series (+250)

It came down to Draisaitl and McDavid, but I think Leon gets the most amount of goals in this series. McDavid has the more favorable regular season performance against the Kings, but he has faded and gone on milk cartons during playoff performances enough to worry me. For +250 with a 55 goal scorer to be the leading scorer of this series, I will glady take those odds.

Consider This: Statistically, the Kings should get romped in this series. However, I didn't take many series prop bets, because I am unsure what version of the Oilers we will be getting. Evander Kane is a good prop bet for points on most nights if the line is favorable enough. The Kings don't really have a great track record with points against the Oilers in the past 3 years or so, which makes taking under point prop bets on guys like Kempe interesting. Dustin Brown has publicly said that this will be his last season, and he is a great playoff performer. He will get on the score-sheet a couple times. When games go into overtime, I would keep his name in the back of my mind for game winning goal props.

Series Analysis: Like the Maple Leafs, eventually there comes a time where a team that is labeled as playoff "choke-artists" gets over the hump. For the Leafs, I don't think it will happen this year. However, I do think that Edmonton will advance past the first round this season. LA has been playing well in the last 10 games with a 6-3-1 record, but they are just super boring to watch. The top line is Iafallo-Kopitar-Kempe for them, although I'm seeing reports that Brown could replace Iafallo now. Their defense is missing Drew Doughty. Obviously, they did well with what they had to make the playoffs, but I am expecting them to fizzle out and not really be in contention in most games. It will all come down to the first game to see if there is any hope for LA this year. If Leon and the boys squander a lead away or are non-existent or something, this is going to end up being a long series. The longer it goes, the more it favors the Kings on paper. Mike Smith is also day and night with his performance in net. He is playing absolutely amazing right now, but we know that can change so quickly for him. This is enough for me to say that Edmonton keeps rolling easily, but I would not be surprised if this series makes it to 7 games. The very first game of the series will be so important.