Week 14 is known as the week where most people playing fantasy football will know if they make the playoffs or not. By now, we also have rookie WRs that are stepping into a new zone, rookie QBs getting their first looks as a starter, front runners for MVP, etc. In terms of betting, there are 6 teams on a bye, but there are still 4 plays I like for this week.

Vikings +2.5 @ Detroit (-118)

When the lines were updated this week, and the Lions were a 1 or 2 point favorite, I had to do a double take. A 5-7 team is a favorite against a 10-2 leader of the division. We've seen so many tickets with the Lions to win the Super Bowl this week posted on Twitter. It's kind of shocking, honestly. I'm not sure if people are just riding their hot streak and trying to "click-farm" for views or they truly believe that the Lions will win out and make playoffs at 10-7. I'm sorry, but I'm just not a beleiver. Lets analyze some of the wins the Lions had in very basic fashion during this win streak: Beat washed up Aaron Rodgers and injury riddled Packers at home 15-9. Hang on to beat the lowly Bears 31-30, in a game where they allow 258 total rushing yards. A worn down and overused Saquon Barkley of the Giants (the only really scary part of their offense) gains 1.5 yard per carry and the Giants lose in a landslide to the Lions 18-31. They make it an interesting game at home to the Bills in the Thanksgiving game, but ultimately make a bad play call that leaves enough time for Josh Allen to pick them apart in the final seconds of the game and lose on a FG. They beat a gimpy Trevor Lawrence 40-14. This team is not as bad as you think, but ultimately, there are many people great players to worry about (ex. Jefferson + Cook), and we still have Jared Goff going against the team that is tied for 4th most interceptions in the league. Part of me wants to smash the -3.5 alternate spread for the Vikings, but I understand that the Lions are at home and this is a rivalary game. It can certainly end in close fashion, but I still think the Vikings pull this win out. I will take a 2.5 cushion, just in case, however.

Chigoziem Okonkwo ov25.5 receiving yards (-135)

Last week, Treylon Burks immeadiately made an impact against the Eagles when he caught a long 25+ yard TD in the first quarter. Unfortunately, he was concussed on the play and was quickly ruled out of the game. This week, he did not pass through the concussion protocol, and he is ruled out. This should open the door to receivers and pass catchers on the Titans, in a key division game at home. Last week, it was not Robert Woods who stepped up as primary receiver in the absence of Burks. Chigoziem Okonkwo received a 32.5% target rate in the loss with five targets. We should expect around the same number, maybe 5-7 targets. All he really needs to do is catch around 50-70% of these targets, and he should easily amass 26 receiving yards against the Jags, who are 20th against Tight ends in terms of fantasy points this season.

Deebo Samuel ov4.5 receptions (+125)

Here's a player prop I really like for tonight that is + money on Draftkings. Samuel has had a fairly disappointing season overall, but he's been hurt and also has 3 different starting QBs he's had to catch balls from. However, he is viewed as probably the safest Wide Receiver on the 49ers, and you can probably see him catching a few screens and short passes to build up Brock Purdy's confidence against an intimidating Tampa Bay defense. Last week, Samuel received 10 targets in the game that Jimmy G was hurt. Tampa Bay is pretty stout with passing yards allowed, however, they are about average in completions allowed (13th). Additionally, Samuel carries no injury desigination in this game, and it is believed that he is close to 100% healthy now.

Kyler Murray un238.5 passing yards (-115)

This week, Kyler will face the 7th best pass defense in the league on a Monday night football game this week. One thing about Bill Belichick is that he always seems to prepare well for going against young quarterbacks (think any game ever against Zach Wilson), and usually plans well against mobile quarterbacks. There was discussion last week about Murray, that he doesn't "care about anybody but himself" from Patrick Peterson, a former teammate. Murray didn't let the criticism go unnoticed and he fired back at him almost immeadiately online, for everyone to see. There seems to be a lot of pressure on the Cardinals right now. Kliff is barely hanging onto the head coaching job, and Murray is getting a lot of pressure now that he is entering the Big Man (ironic?) contract. I guarantee that Belichick is salivating at this matchup, and they badly need a win to stay in playoff contention. This could be ugly.