Are you ready for some football??? Last week was a bit of an off week for us. It was the first losing week in football since week 2. The confidence was low due to some back breaking hockey bets. Hockey is still not going well this week, but it's a brand new chance for football. You can't win if you don't bet. I think Wayne Gretzky said that right? Or maybe some delusional gambler on twitter, just like myself. Anyway, week 7 brings some interesting player props on tap, including 2 game lines.

Aaron Rodgers ov1.5 Pass TDs (-115) @ Washington

Aaron Rodgers is getting near even money against in my opinion, one of the worst defenses in the league. I am an avid fan of Washington (for reasons completely unknown to me, that I can never even begin to understand), but even I will admit this defense is coached terribly. There's a chance something on offense can change with Taylor Heinicke getting another chance, as he's a guy that the locker room really seems to get behind. However, the defense is not going to change until either Jack Del Rio, Ron Rivera or both leave the organization (preferably on the same day). Rodgers is throwing to random children at this point, but even children can find open holes on this defense and catch enough touchdowns for him to get over the line set. Also, I think Rodgers is getting a lot of unfair criticism after losing to the Jets, causing people to be skeptical of the Pack again. Before the Jets game, Rodgers threw 2 touchdowns in each week starting at week 2 and ending at week 5.

Alec Pierce ov43.5 receiving yards (-115) @ Tennessee

The Titans are allowing a lot of passing yards recently. They have 1,527 passing yards allowed through 5 games. This is the most average passing yards allowed per game. Alec saw his snaps increase to 65% last week. He also has hit OVER this line in every game since week 3, when he was still not trusted enough as a rookie. Don't overthink it. Sometimes you gotta ride the data.

New York Jets ML (-120) @ Denver

Brett Rypien is playing QB, but even before he was announced as the starter, this was a juicy moneyline. There isn't a lot of data on him as a starter. However, his only start ever came in 2020 against the Jets. He went 19/31 for 242 yards, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Believe it or not, the Broncos did win that game, but let's not forget that the Jets have been a dumpster fire for nearly a straight decade before this year's success. I just don't see it happening again for Rypien this time. Melvin Gordon is on the verge of retirement any week now. Sauce Gardner would most likely be matching against Courtland Sutton, who is the best WR on the team. Jerry Jeudy has been wildly inconsistent. Hackett is most certainly NOT a confident offensive guru that is going to put his inexperienced QB in a good spot to win the game. There are many obstacles for the Broncos to overcome. Give me the J-E-T-S on the road here.

George Pickens ov42.5 receiving yards (-125) @ Miami

Kenny Pickett was ruled out of the game last week, but their lead was enough for Mitch Trubisky to hold on for the win. However, this week he is completely off the injury report (which hopefully is legit). As we've seen, Pickett does like throwing the ball to Pickens, so it's definitely a better situation than with Mitch is throwing. Miami is letting up roughly the 6th highest amount of passing yards. Pickens had received 83% of snaps last week. We've seen great flashes and plays from him. He could be due for a big game here.

David Bell ov1.5 receptions (-105) @ Baltimore

Bell has started receiving more snaps and running more routes on the team. Last week he logged 63% of snaps after logging 43% during week 5 and just 26% in week 4. The Ravens are a favorite, and this means we could see more passing than usual for the Browns. I believe Bell will be a bigger break-out candidate when DeShaun Watson comes back, but he just needs 2 catches against a pretty poor pass defense. Look for Bell to get more involved this week. I'm smashing the over on this.

Leonard Fournette ov64.5 rushing yards (-115) @ Carolina

Lenny has had some really impressive games recently. There was a spell from weeks 3-4 that was not great with rushing yardage, but this week he is facing the tanking Carolina Panthers. They are currently the 8th worst team against the run. A lot of Fournette's recent performance has been with catching the ball. This week, Tampa are huge 13 point favorites, so they won't likely have to win through the air. I like Leonard to rip off a few big gains on the Panthers defense. He should be more effective than last week's 3.0 yards per carry number against the Steelers.

Patriots vs Bears un40 total points (-110)

Taking an under on a primetime game? I know what you are thinking, how main-stream of me. But here's the real reason why we won't have to worry about this game being anywhere NEAR 40 points- Bill Belichick. Whenever you see Bill against a rookie quarterback (or relatively inexperienced QB), he dominates them. Think of several examples- Jared Goff in week 5 and the Pats / Rams superbowl, Jacoby Brissett last week, Trevor Lawrence last year, etc. The list goes on and on. Enter Justin Fields, who has no confidence from his coaching staff as they won't let him throw more than 8 passes a game. He's coming to Foxborough on top of everything? This will be positive for the under. Additionally, Mac Jones is possibly going to start with a high ankle sprain. This injury usually lasts 4 weeks for most people to come back from. We are currently not in that time-line yet. I'm no doctor, but I can bet it is still an issue for Mac since he at least was held back a little during practice this week with limited sessions. If Mac comes back this soon, he could struggle or Patricia is going to protect him and call run play after run play and drain the clock down- kinda like how they were doing anyway with Mac as starter.