Hockey Bets 03/22
Hockey Bets 03/22
Kurt Kuklewicz
For the first time ever in Stat Glitchers history, we will take one bet per game tonight at 1 unit. We are playing tiddlywinks with $10 betting units, but it still counts! Just to clarify, these bets were more than impulses (I think) and were part of 2 day research at least. I also ensured we were getting great value by comparing our bets with other "juiced up" sports betting sites that are the most accurate. Some are negative lines, some are +200 or greater, we even have a bet with +400 tonight.
Kevin Hayes Anytime Goal Scorer @ Detroit (+250)
Hot take: when healthy, Kevin Hayes is one of the best skaters for the Flyers this year. He likes to go on little runs where he is so productive, and he showed that in the last 4 games with 5 points, including 4 goals. The best improvement though Hayes' deployment, which is 21:33, 22:12 and 19:26 in the last 3 games. Some players have been moved onto other teams (RIP Captain Claude) and I think we will see Kevin continue to get strong ice time rest of season. Detroit has been very erratic recently. They also just lost a great Defenseman in Nick Leddy. This is a great opportunity to cash in on a +250 goal-scorer. Remember, this team's best defensive player is still a rookie, who is offensive-minded and the team just gave up a touchdown and field goal to Toronto a few weeks ago. Bring it home, Kevin!
Pavel Buchnevich o0.5 points @ Washington (-140)
Buchnevich is playing Washington, who he has faced many times as a Ranger. He has 47 points in 52 games played this year, and he is getting a bump in deployment with both Tarasenko and Rob Thomas out for this one. The icing on the cake, if you still needed it, is that in the last 3 years, Buchnevich has 15 points in the 12 games against Washington.
Dawson Mercer u0.5 points VS NY Rangers (-135)
The great Igor was rumored to be playing today, and I knew I wanted a piece of the action. Last time, we played Brayden Point to get under a point, and we were pretty damn close as the Lightning scored only one goal all game (which unfortunately Point cashed in). I was not brave enough to bet the under on Jack Hughes, so I will take a rookie who has been streaky throughout the year. Mercer only has 1 point in the last 5.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Carolina Hurricanes u6 goals (-120)
Both teams are powerhouses on the season, but I'm not just talking about their offense and their ability to score goals. Their defense does not get talked about that much here for both teams. I was expecting to play this at under 5.5, but I will take a push if there is an unlucky goal at the last second or empty netter that would ruin the 5.5. Carolina is very good at just completely locking games down once they get a lead. This is all an advantage to the game line under 6.
Ottawa Senators @ NY Islanders u5.5 goals (-105)
It does not matter whatever goalie is in for the Islanders, they have not let up more than 2 in their last 3 games. Their offense is still a little shaky. They struggled to score more than 1 goal against Philadelphia AFTER they traded Giroux. Ottawa is struggling offensively as well too with 5 goals in the last 3 games. They are okay defensively with the exception of the Montreal game. I'm thinking we die of boredom from this game. Slam the under.
Jack Roslovic Anytime Goal Scorer @ Pittsburgh (+400)
It's not a YOLO goal scorer if the player you choose is a young player on the first line that is looking to see what they can develop as future pieces of their franchise. I always thought that he was a great player and didn't get great deployment in Winnipeg. Then, when he was traded to Columbus last season, he gave me reassurance with 34 points in 48 games played. This season, he's been shuffled around the lineup a bit, but he did score a goal against Pittsburgh earlier this year, and he also has 2 in the last 3. With added deployment on the top line, look out. In other sports books, I saw them barely giving +300 for Ros to score. When you continually look to play odds that are being undervalued, you will eventually make profit in the long run. Let's prove that tonight.
Josh Morrissey o0.5 points VS Vegas (+115)
To the poor Jets fans that lost Andrew Copp yesterday, I feel your pain as the Rangers become more and more like an all-star team around playoff time. I took Morrissey here because he has 4 points in 2 games versus the Golden Knights this season. Also, he does have 3 points in the last 3 as well. The Golden Knights are still struggling a bit to find their groove now that Lehner is still out, but it's been a battle. Logan Thompson looks projected to start tonight and he actually hasn't been half bad. If Brossoit is in net though, bump the lines on all of the Jets players.
Kailer Yamamoto o0.5 points @ Dallas (+100)
There is not a man that is hotter in the last 5 or 6 games overall, outside of maybe Roman Josi. A benefactor to playing with MacDavid and Evander Kane, Yamamoto is starting to go on his notorious "end-of-season" run again. The two things that has impressed me the most with him recently is his ice time (over 20 minutes in some games) and his physicality. He has logged 3 or more hits in 4 out of the last 5 games. Who knew he was the power-forward on that line? Oh yeah, and no big deal, just 9 points in the last 6 games.
Alex Iafallo u0.5 points VS Nashville (-130)
This is mostly a play on the Kings playing very poorly lately. The Silver Helmets have a total of 6 goals in regulation / overtime in the last 5 games. This is not very good. Also, even though the Kempe / Kopitar / Iafallo line is listed as first, they are still taking recent deployment below the first line in terms of percentage at even strength.
Clayton Keller o0.5 PPP VS Seattle (+240)
I'm a huge sucker for these power-play points although they are very risky. It's basically the equivalent of taking a player to get a certain number of free throws made in basketball. The person you are betting on for free throws can only make zero free throws on zero throws. However, we have recent history on our side, and also a couple other new nuggets of information. Did you know that in the last 8 games, the Kraken have let up 11 power-play goals? Also, Clayton Keller and the Coyotes have been hot. The power-play has scored in 3 out of the last 4 games for them. Crouse is interesting here for the more leveraged play (+370), but I feel Keller is the better playmaker on these big power-play scenarios, and thus more likely to log a point on the man advantage.
Tomas Hertl o2.5 shots @ Calgary (+125)
You know I was getting in one shot prop at least, right? Hertl is averaging well over 3 shots in the last 3 games, and he also had 2 games against Calgary this year already. In those games, he had 5 shots and 7 shots, scoring 4 goals. Calgary has made some moves recently to strengthen their team. I wouldn't take a large number of goals against the red hot Jacob Markstrom this season, but I will bet plenty on the o2.5 shot line for Hertl tonight. Mr. Millionaire for days!