Hockey Bets 03/17

Hockey Bets 03/17

Kurt Kuklewicz

Someone recently said to me that I need to take charge of my own destiny. Basically, you can't rely on other people to take you to the top. It was Stone Cold Steve Austin who said it best, after-all. DTA- Don't Trust Anyone. Okay, so that's not exactly the same thing, but close enough. Stone Cold didn't need to rely on anybody else to make his career. He just stunned everyone and whooped people's asses, very aggressively. While I can't do that after placing a bet on my phone in the Market Basket parking lot (or I certainly SHOULDN'T at least), I can perhaps afford to branch out more. Improve the site, gain a larger audience to build a strong betting community, introduce a new crypto shit coin maybe, create a podcast, whatever it takes. All I know is that Stat Glitchers will prevail.

3 Leg bet (bet all combinations or 4x at $5)

In order to make my own destiny, I am trying something different tonight. For all I know, it could be really dumb, but I want to at least try it. I have three legs I like in particular tonight, that have high odds. I want to parlay them, but it's a bummer when you only hit 2/3 legs, especially when they give high pay-out individually. I am pretty confident in at least 2 legs hitting and if the 3rd hits, we are in great shape mathematically (well obviously). Therefore, I am betting $5 on all combinations (bet A + bet B), (C + A) (B +C) and (A,B,C all together). I've thought of doing this for awhile, but it seems that it only really pays off when you have several legs around +150 or greater.

Here is the bet:

Nashville -1.5 puck line @ Philadelphia (+145)

Buffalo Sabres Moneyline @ Edmonton (+210)

Anders Lee anytime goal scorer @ New York Rangers (+220)

Nashville has been winning their games by playing amazing offense. The first line, particularly Duchene and Forsberg, are getting on the board every single night. Smashville has scored 4 or more in the last 4 games and they have an opponent in Philly that has really been getting shelled for goals lately and have a very uncertain future ahead of them.

The Sabres jumped out to me as "not as bad as you think" the way they handled teams like the Golden Knights and Toronto. This team has a lot of potential now that Team Killer, Jack Eichel is gone (too soon?). They draw Mike Smith tonight, so there's no telling what will happen exactly. He will either record a shutout or get pulled by the 2nd, there's really no in between. I could not resist licking my chomps at the +210 odds though.

Dig deeper into the numbers of Anders Lee and you will see that he has 9 points in the last 5 games, which 8 of the points are goals. It appears someone on the coaching staff told him to get shooting the puck again, because he has about 17 in these last 5 total, or over 3.4 on average. Maybe Anders just saw the team losing and he thought to himself, I'm just going to make my own destiny. Ever since "Igor for MVP" has been pumped down our throats for the last week and a half, we've seen him take a pretty big hit. In the last two games, he's let up 4 goals and gotten a loss twice. He got pulled in one against St. Louis.

Jake Guentzel o3.5 shots @ St. Louis (+135)

Guentzel has been featured on here frequently with shots, in some cases with the under and others with the over. He can be a bit inconsistent, and there are some teams (like NJ) that he just does not shoot the puck well against historically. However, last game they paired Guentzel with Rodrigues and Crosby, instead of Rust and Crosby. Rust himself is a guy that likes to fire the puck a lot. With him off the line, it seemed that the shots tipped back to Jake's favor a bit more. He had 6 shots against Nashville. St. Louis had given up 4 shots to Jake earlier in the year as well, and I think there is a good chance this hits tonight. They have tried this lineup earlier in the year before, and Guentzel's shot numbers are slightly higher in this configuration. In practice, they kept the lineup the same today.

Anthony Mantha o0.5 points @ Columbus (-105)

With only 6 games played in March after missing the season since early November it looks like Mantha is just beginning to heat up and get more deployment. On Tuesday, he had skated over 19 minutes, which was a season high. He rewarded Coach Lavy with a goal, and the team got the win. Since all coaches like wins, I'm sure this will do well to keep his deployment in the 17+ minutes played range at the very least. In 7 games played against the Blue Jackets in the past 3 years, Mantha has a pretty solid 6 points scored. It looks like Joonas Korpisalo is a lock to get the start tonight in net, who sports a 3.95 GAA and .883, which should slighty boost Mantha's chance of a point tonight.