Hockey Bets 04/19
Hockey Bets 04/19
Kurt Kuklewicz
Yesterday was a strange day with highs and lows regarding our betting article. At first, I noticed that Elias Lindholm wasn't going to score goal 40, and also not log his 3rd shot of the game. Considering that this was the featured "double-dip" bet, I was feeling pretty silly. Then, Kuznetsov didn't even bother to shoot more than 1 shot against the Avs, who were giving up nearly 39 shots a game to their opponents in April. I guess they only give up a ton of shots when they win? Very odd. It was looking like a reverse sweep, but then at least Brady Tkachuk put us on the board in the 2nd period of the late game against Seattle. I had some faith. Ghost didn't manage to get in on any of the 3 goals that Arizona managed to score against Carolina, so a 2-3 finish was not profitable, but not terrible considering that the early games were not kind to us.
Ultimately, I would like to thank the New Jersey Devils for not only smashing the +1.5 puck line against the Golden Knights, but out-right winning the game. Vancouver kept their win streak alive, and the Sens / Kraken game finished at 6 even. As a result, we cashed another 3 leg parlay (technically 2 leg parlay on the Kraken / Sens push), although it was a little watered down. Today, there are more bets to consider, but I like 5 bets in particular again. Since we won on a parlay in the late games yesterday (and playing all game lines / choices), I must absolutely try again for another since we are up over 3 betting units already on the week.
Philadelphia Flyers +2.5 puck line @ Toronto (-125)
As you can tell from the photo in the article, the Flyers are a smash play in my opinion for the +2.5 puck line. I did have to dig back to the 2020 season though for a picture I could use of them winning a game. It just wouldn't be a SG article without some form of knocking the Flyers. Now let me tell you about Rasmus Ristolainen... (ok I won't do this, I promise). Auston Matthews is out another game, and the Flyers are coming off two games on back to back nights during the weekend against the Sabres. To be completely honest, I didn't think they played terrible. They are always getting off to great starts, and then squander leads away and lose in heartbreaking fashion in the 3rd or OT. Sorokin played great in the last game against the Maple Leafs (also without Matthews), but Toronto are obviously a much lesser team without him. All it took was 2 periods for me to see that Matthews is the clear MVP this season. Like there is no question they need him in order to go far in the playoffs. The Flyers are being vastly underrated in this game. I actually think there is a great chance the Flyers get to an early lead, and it will be hard to put them away with more than 2.5 goals if this happens. I would almost certainly consider live-bet hedging on Toronto ML if they are down big (2 goals or more) during the first or second period. Who knows? Maybe you end up winning both bets.
Lucas Raymond un0.5 points @ Tampa (-120)
Raymond has been playing a little cold again recently. He has 0 points in the last 3 games, and he doesn't match-up well against the Lightning and Andrei Vasilevsky. Detroit as a whole team has been a little snake-bit. They have just 5 goals in the last 4 games, which is pretty low compared to the rest of the league in April, thus far. The Lightning should continue to shut down the Red Wings, like they have been all season long, except that one game at the very beginning of the season where Tyler Bertuzzi put up 4 goals on them, but they still lost. Raymond only factored into one goal that game though, with an apple. Bet the under.
Kevin Fiala ov3.5 shots @ Montreal (+130)
I'm not sure if you caught any of the game or highlights of Fiala during the Wild / Sharks game on Easter Sunday, but his performance was really something special. 4 points, including the game winner and 4 shots on net. He actually has 12 points in the last 6 games. Montreal is still struggling defensively, but Carey Price looked pretty solid in his first game back to me. Therefore, I am avoiding the point line for Fiala in the exception that Price steals one somehow. I'm going to play the line on shots instead. Fiala averages over 4 shots per game against Montreal in the last 3 years, and we know that they are giving up 34.54 shots per game on the entire season. This is 3rd worst in the league.
Mika Zibanejad ov2.5 shots VS Winnipeg (-125)
Zib has been firing the puck again recently, and it wouldn't be a regular betting day for us without picking someone to shoot the hell out of the Jets. In the last 3 games, Zib has 13 shots. Whatever caused him to shoot just 5 shots in the prior 6 games before these last 3 seems to have been amended. In their only match-up earlier this year, Zibanejad put up 5 shots on Winnipeg, in their house. 3 shots for Zib should be a breeze tonight.
Tyler Toffoli ov0.5 points @ Nashville (+105)
Toffoli has been awfully quiet from the scoresheet lately, but that doesn't mean we need to ignore him completely again. In fact, yesterday I watched some of their game against the Blackhawks. He had many opportunities to score with 4 shots on net. Saros is struggling mightily since mid-late March, and there is a bad feeling here looming as his owner in fantasy hockey. Also, in 2 games with Montreal against Nashville this year, Toffoli logged 5 points, including 1 goal, 4 assists and 6 shots on net. If there is any game this dude is going to break out of his funk, this is the one I'm looking at. For +105 odds, I'm in.
Late night 3 leg parlay
Feel free to split this out if you like (or fade it or whatever you want to do), but I am obligated to keep the units coming in with another parlay tonight. That should be a required rule. After you hit one parlay one night, you must play another the next (without getting too confident or cute). Here is the play:
Columbus / San Jose ov6
LA Kings -1.5 @ Anaheim
Quinn Hughes ov0.5 assist VS Ottawa
+650
Let me hit you with some quick hits here, I'm not going to over-think this. LA should lock this one in regulation, but the odds are solid that they bury an empty netter if given the opportunity (or win by greater than 2 anyway without it). Columbus and San Jose have many defensive players that are out, and the goaltending has not been there recently for either team. Quinn Hughes has managed to rack up 12 assists in 12 games against Ottawa and they need another W badly tonight to stay in the playoff picture.