Football Bets Week 5

football Bets Week 5

Kurt Kuklewicz

Player props for life! We have cut a few profitable game lines in the past, but this week- the focus is all about player props. I like player props a lot because they involve a lot more individual research than just picking games or over/unders, in my opinion. You also have it expanded to more markets: regular sports betting at casinos and online sportsbooks, PrizePicks and underdog pick em's and DFS on Draftkings. Player props cover it all. Plus, we've seen how wacky this year has been. I honestly don't trust the games worth a dime this year. We have coaches just willing to risk going a 2 point conversion to win / lose the game under a minute left. We have coaches that would rather take losses than nearly automatic ties *cough cough, sorry I was "HACK"-ing*. There's last second fumble recoveries in the endzone with 0.0 seconds left on the clock to absolutely DESTROY your handicap pick (and any poor bloke going against the Browns D/ST in fantasy football). Player props are more fun too; especially with overs. Imagine, you're down bad on a Nick Chubb rushing yard prop and he absoluetly SHREDs a big run to lock you up near the end of the game. Such a feels good, man. Now let's get to work with 6 player props.

Elijah Moore ov3.5 receptions (+105)

Talks of "Elijah Moore SZN" is getting squashed this year because Joe Flacco had to come in and take over early in the season, and Garrett Wilson has looked very solid, taking away some of Moore's thunder. Let's not forget so easily though. Elijah and Zach Wilson had tremendous chemistry last year. Miami allows the 2nd most passing yards in the league this year. I think Zach Wilson will have a respectable showing as the Fins allow an average of 26.25 completions per game. As Garrett continues to garner more attention each week, this only distracts from Elijah. He will eventually have a breakout game one week when people forget about him.

Derek Carr ov1.5 passing touchdowns (-130)

In the last 4 games against the Chiefs, Carr has 9 passing touchdowns, which is pretty good. Now, you add the insanely talented weapon of Davante Adams this season, and you have to like his chances to hit 2 or more passing touchdowns this week. In fact, every single QB that Kansas City has faced this year has chucked 2 or more TDs on the scoreboard. This includes the shell of the former shell of Matt Ryan. The Chiefs are actually tied with most passing touchdowns allowed this year with the Commanders and the Titans at 10.

Bailey Zappe un29.5 passing attempts (-110)

Zappe showed some good gun-slinging ability against the Pack last week. He somehow was within a field goal of beating a back to back MVP QB in Aaron Rodgers. He really should have too. However, he was held hostage from his own coaching staff. This is something I brought up earlier, the Patriots just do not let their inexperienced guys have freedom to throw the ball around. Zappe only had 15 passing attempts in the entire game. Considering that the game opened up initially with Hoyer tossing the pig-skin around 6 times in just the first two series, this is very disappointing. The Pats leaned on Damien Harris and Stevenson all game. However, if the Pats had a little bit of guts, they could have won this game. Considering that Bill absolutely GUSHED about the Lions punter, calling him "a weapon", I now realize that he is completely over the hill or delusional... or he's just completely playing us like how a WWE wrestler plays their character every week to the audience. It's a work??? I actually don't know anymore. Regardless, the Pats have the current 8th least amount of passing attempts per game (which was also true last season). Do not expect them to let Zappe have freedom to air it out at all, even though this would've been a great test and possibly a tremendous confidence booster for him. Also, this makes over rushing attempts or yardage appealing for Harris or Stevenson.

Saquon Barkley un80.5 rushing yards (-115)

The Giants enter this week as a big 7.5 point underdog for the London game, which is usually a bad script for a running back. However, first, we really need to talk about Saquon's usage this season. In a previous tweet this week, I brought him up as a great sell-high for fantasy football, as his expected rushing attempts are on pace for 350+ this season. This is absolutely not sustainable. I am really worried that the Giants are putting too much on this young kid. I hope they can manage his workload moving forward, because his body (or anyone's) is not ready for that. Think of how Todd Gurley was given carries and force fed every single week, that he eventually had long term issues with his knees at the ripe age of 25 from wear and tear. This was only with 279 carries and 64 receptions that season. Could you imagine 350 though??? Jonathan Taylor got 332 and we see that he's looked off and a bit banged up this season. I will admit that the Pack don't have a particularly good run defense, but aren't we at the point where opposing coordinators aren't really concerned about Richie James and Darius Slayton? Saquon will see 8 in the box plenty, and if the Giants fall fast, he will get scripted out of rushing the ball. Of course, catching the ball is always a possibility, but that doesn't affect our bet. I've seen boosts (and PrizePicks tacos) for his rushing yardage too. It makes me wonder if this prop is a trap for over bettors.

Evan McPherson ov1.5 FG made (+100)

I know what you're thinking- betting on a kicker? Thankfully, this is a bet on the Bengals kicker and not the Ravens kicker (who is an all time great player, possibly the best ever at his position, but does not get bothered to kick game tying FGs because of "analytics" or something like that). McPherson has been money and plays on a team that is loaded with offensive weapons and going against the absolute worst pass defense in the league. Expect plenty of kicking opportunities, and he's hit 2 or more in every game thus far. As far as I can tell, the weather looks ideal for this game too for a kicker. Mid 60 degree weather and wind that is 5 mph or less.

Dalvin Cook ov77.5 rushing yards (-115)

The Bears have surrendered the most rushing yards in the league with 733 yards in 4 contests. Cook was dinged up last week with a shoulder injury, but this week he has been completely off the injury report. Kirk Cousins has been a bit of a roller coaster this season, from the week 1 MVP (LOL) talks, to the Prime-time choke job. They would probably prefer to limit his pass attempts if they don't have to air it out. The Bears have an offense that can't (and won't by choice) pass the ball. They are 2nd worst in total number of first downs (59) vs the Vikings, who are 6th best with 92. At some point, you really don't have to over-analyze something.