Hockey Playoffs Round 1: EAST
Hockey Playoffs Round 1: EAST
Kurt Kuklewicz
Predictions and prophecies! Round 1 is the round that starts it all. Tons of people will have their own specific predictions they believe in (or are biased by- Penguins to the cup baby!!!). Others will have their hopes and dreams crushed, and this will surely happen for 15/16 teams in the playoffs and their respective fan bases. I break down each series in the East and list what I believe will happen. We will also investigate series props to take a look at, and things to keep in mind for player props on the day of betting for each game. We'll be careful to not bet huge amounts on silly things that add up and make you lose $100 before you know it. However, I will take a few lotto tickets that I'll share: don't expect to get rich off these though, they are just instinctive impulses I have and all need a specific script to hit.
East Playoff Matchups
Florida vs Washington
Predicted Winner: Florida wins 4-2
Bets taken: None
Consider this: Barkov should log more than 2.5 shots in most games this series, as he averages well over 4 shots per game against Washington in the past 3 years. Ovechkin is the leading scorer against the Panthers (surprise, surprise), with 7 goals in his last 5 against Florida. With all the mouths to feed in Florida, Ovie is the clear favorite to win the leading goal-scorer of the series (+250) assuming he plays every game. I would also keep an eye on TJ Oshie. He always is in the mix for scoring during playoffs. Think back to their cup run in 2017-18, he scored 21 points in 24 games. Hornqvist is a dark horse for some points or goals against Washington, he has history of clutch playoff performances (including some against Washington) as a Penguin. Keep in mind that he will be on the 3rd or 4th line if he plays, and as a result, he should draw a favorable matchup in most games.
Series Analysis: This was honestly a little tough for me. I think this series will be closer than everyone thinks. Both Bob AND Spencer Knight have some career stats that are pretty poor against Washington. Bob averages well over 3.00 GAA in the past three years, for example. Let's not forget his postseason numbers in general. Bob has the Vezina trophy to show, and great regular season numbers overall, but his playoff numbers are very poor. 13-23 record as a starter and a 3.24 GAA and .899 save percentage. This year, the supporting cast is tremendous for Florida. They should be more than able to help boost Bob's numbers at least a little bit. If things should go awry, Spencer Knight is right there and waiting for an opportunity. Hopefully, they don't wait too long if they have to make this move, like they did last year. Washington should steal a game or two here, but the team is really erratic to me. If Ovechkin misses any time, their chances of stealing the series dwindle tremendously, even if he misses just one game.
Toronto vs Tampa Bay
Predicted Winner: Tampa Bay wins 4-3
Bets taken:
Most Goals H2H Kucherov to score more than Tavares (-120)
Kucherov Most Goals in the series (+900)
I obviously loaded up on Kucherov with the H2H win over Tavares and the lotto for most goals in the series at +900. Have we all forgot already how dominant this guy was last year? 32 points in both playoffs for two years in a row now. He also has 23 fricking points in the last 9 games!!! I'm not even joking, check it out if you don't believe me. In his last 5 career games against the Maple Leafs, he also has 5 goals, which is a goal per game pace. Compare him to Tavares, and Johnny Boy has 1 goal in the last 8 games.
Consider this: Matthews should THEORETICALLY score a lot of goals, if he can get the monkey off his back known as the "first round". Steven Stamkos should be scoring points almost every night. He has a tremendous track record against Toronto, specifically with assists. Goaltending is a big disadvantage for Toronto, so any Goalie Head to Head props should be taken in favor for Vas. William Nylander and Kerfoot should provide good secondary scoring if Matthews and Marner struggle again this year for the Leafs in the playoffs.
Series Analysis: I know everyone is jumping on the train that the Maple Leafs get out of the first round this time finally. I'm sorry, but I just don't see it. I'm not even overestimating the play of the back-to-back champions (but they have been really solid lately). The Maple Leafs biggest problem this year is the Maple Leafs. Think of how many epic meltdowns or near-meltdowns this team had this year. Auston Matthews got so frustrated with his game that he nearly chopped off the hands of someone during the Heritage Classic, an internationally televised outdoor game. Oh, let's not forget that they lost that game as a nearly huge -300 Moneyline favorite. They also lost a few other games that were considered "locks" numerous times. It was a trendy thing to do on Twitter to bet against the Leafs and share it with your followers when they were a huge favorite this year. They nearly blew a 4 goal lead to Detroit in the 3rd period alone. If it wasn't for their absolutely atrocious coaching and defense on Detroit, they would have lost that game and been a laughing stock for several weeks. The memes that would have been generated... ah, what could have been. Give me Tampa in another heart-breaking game 7 for Leafs fans.
Carolina vs Boston
Predicted Winner: Carolina wins 4-3
Bets taken: None
Consider this: Teuvo Teravainen has 6 points in his last 3 games played against Boston, most of them being apples (5). In the 2019-20 bubble season, Boston beat Carolina, even they were considered an underdog by most. Marchand had 7 points that series, but he had 0 points in all the matchups this year in the regular season. Historically, Aho, Svechnikov and Slavin all perform very well in the playoffs, but remember that Slavin has a bit of a different role now with DeAngelo. Speaking of Tony D, he does have 7 points (6 apples) in the last 6 games played against Boston.
Series Analysis: I initially had Carolina winning in 6 games, but the injury to Freddie Andersen has me worried enough to make this series go to 7 games. I don't think he will miss the entire series, but he is slated to miss at least the first game, and possibly more. I have seen enough Carolina games this year to feel comfortable with them winning this series. Also, we know that Boston had a rough stretch scoring most recently. They appear a little flustered. For the highest goal scorer, Andrei Svechnikov is a bit of a dark horse at +800 and I actually thought about taking it for a bit, but that would require him out-scoring superstars like Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak, even if they win the series.
New York Rangers vs Pittsburgh
Predicted Winner: New York Rangers 4-3
Bets Taken: Frank Vatrano Top Goalscorer Series (+2000)
I already tweeted about this, but this series is hard to predict and I am taking a bit of a low risk lotto on it. Frank Vatrano scored 1 goal in ALL 3 games against the Penguins this year as a member of the Rangers. Did you know, he also has the most goals scored compared to any other Ranger in the last 3 years against the Penguins? As long as he is playing top line minutes (with Zib and Kreider most recently), Vatrano I think actually has a decent chance to hit this.
Consider This: Jeff Carter is going to be likely centering the 3rd line again, but he has a pretty solid playoff career, and should be a good wildcard to score a goal here and there. Obviously, if there is any injury to Crosby / Malkin, his ceiling goes up on all props, including goals, points and shots. Zib is a great bet for over 2.5 shots on most nights when available. In fact, if you had to bet on a prop to save your life on any night, I would look to see if the Rangers are playing the Penguins that night and then sift through the over shot lines for the Rangers.
Series Analysis: Unfortunately, I think that the Rangers are going to be just too much for the Penguins to handle. This year, they won't be man-handled by a team that plays physical (as we know the refs call absolutely zero penalties in playoffs unless you murder a guy). However, they will probably be out-worked on defense. They have given up a TON of shots recently, and this is not good news going into the playoffs. Additionally, the additions of Vatrano and Copp makes it hard to bet for the Penguins. I really hope that I'm wrong (at least on the series result), but it looks like Gallant is going to take his Rangers into the 2nd round unless something surprising happens, like Lemieux lacing them up. Casey DeSmith has been filling in nicely while Jarry is Day to Day, and he is the one realistic thing that can change the series in favor of the Penguins. We all know that Jarry's glove was exploited heavily last year by the Isles, and DeSmith was unavailable with an injury all playoffs long. I am looking forward to how he will perform his first series slated as the starter (for Game 1 at least). If the Pens get swept or lose heavily, we may get news about Sullivan getting fired a few days later, as this would become their 3rd first round exit in a row.