Bets Audit Week Ending 04/10
Hockey Bets Audit 04/04 - 04/10
Kurt Kuklewicz
Arizona might be my favorite state after this week. It sure is nice to have all of those great Sportsbooks options. One thing that I noticed is that they are definitely more liberal with boosts, promos and free bets / sign-on bonuses. Especially what we are used to seeing in New Hampshire, having only Draftkings Sportsbook as the only option. This is probably because there is a ton of competition in Arizona. If MGM Bet offers a risk-free token on a 4 game parlay, you can bet your ass I'll be betting it there compared to somewhere else that I have no promos in. By the way, I actually hit a 4 leg SGP on Bet MGM like this, which I posted to my Twitter earlier in the week, but I didn't technically call it or post it on an article or the SG Twitter feed BEFORE I bet it. (I mostly didn't do this because I thought that there would be no possible way it would hit). Parlays are especially attractive to new bettors, because they think they can get rich quick with them. I still love betting parlays, but I've learned to take less of them. I only really do them for fun, or when I have 2-3 bets in a single time-line and want to add a little bonus for hitting all bets. Let's see how we fared, but I think when you look at the overall profit, you'll notice that the risk-free sign on bets were HUGELY taken advantage wherever possible. I should also be taking a trip to Pennsylvania in the near future, which has other Sportsbooks, so be on the lookout for more sign up bonuses.
Record of pick'ems: 21-14-1
Profit with pick'ems: $491.38 (or 49.1 betting units!!!)
Record on parlays: 1-0
Profit with parlay: 45.57 (or 4.5 betting units)
Overall profit: 536.95 (or 53.7 betting units)
Record on player props: 21-11
Over player props: 17-10
Under player props: 2-0
Anytime goal scorer: 2-1
Record on game lines / team or game props: 0-3-1
Most profitable bet: Cole Caufield Anytime Goal (@ Toronto) +240
Big Unit Plays:
Nathan MacKinnon o4.5 shots @ Winnipeg (+110) 20 units Barstool SB
Cole Caufield Anytime Goal Scorer @ Toronto (+240) 10 units risk-free Caesars
Downfalls of the week:
Terrible game line / team prop bets
I'm not going to nit-pick here much this week. I know I got insanely hot, and probably even a little lucky. However, I feel it is important to always look at better opportunities. I was mostly awful with all of my game line or team prop bets. To be fair though, one was a push, and the Sabres scored 3 goals in the first 15 minutes when we took o3.5 against the Panthers for a game... And I could have cashed it for +1.75 betting units at the first intermission but chose not to. Bob was playing so bad, all they really had to do was sneeze on the puck, and that force alone would have been too fast for Bob to stop. Somehow, they blew this start to the game and outright lost and didn't even score again to save my bet. They also did this during a similar game against Carolina... So yeah, I am totally going to look at the Buffalo 1st period / opponent ML odds next time they play and potentially bet it. I find game lines and handicaps tough to be profitable on. It must be the lifetime fantasy hockey player in me that just wants to bet everything on player props. Unfortunately, this is going to be the quickest way we get limited on Sportsbook sites, but we haven't yet, luckily.
Strengths of the week:
Big Unit Plays - Over 50 units won in a single week!
Risk free bets and signing up for free bets / sign on bonuses in Arizona
Playing pretty much every promo when there is "risk free" or "boosted odds" mentioned. The forced outcome boosted odds (ex. Bet Jack Eichel to score 2 points in his return to Buffalo) I will avoid most of the time though unless it happens to be something I was betting anyway.
Anytime goal scorers were cash kings with +175 and +240, being successful
Strong Tuesday that built confidence and kept us profitable early
Wow, what a week. Even looking back at it now, I still can't believe how much fun this week was and how surreal these bets were. The best thing about it is that these bets didn't involve me breaking out the piggy bank or betting the house, which would have been really nerve racking. The Caufield goal was a risk free bet, but it struck anyway. With a free bet or especially a risk-free bet, you should take something higher than +100. Actually, you really should take something like a player to score a goal or a higher game line that pays out +200-+300 odds because you can always just find a hedge bet (if desired) after to protect yourself with if you whiff on the risk-free bet. I really liked what I saw from Cole recently, Kallgren was getting the start, and we know that when the Cole-train is running hot, you don't get off the ride prematurely. McKinnon's over 4.5 shot line was a little more nerve-wracking (until he smashed it easily and quickly), because I previously bet on Tomas Hertl's shot line against Calgary with 20 risk-free units and whiffed on that one. When I got the money back though, I also took a relatively small free bet I earned from MGM and hedged the under, just to be a little safe. Of course, he hit the 4.5 shots so easily. I don't think I ever been so hot with the anytime goal scorers, and the funny thing is that Bergeron hit that goal for us so incredibly late in the game against Detroit. Then Caufield was almost double the odds, but I had a great feeling with it. Finally, on Sunday I figured "ah what the hell" and bet with Matthieu Joseph to get an anytime goal at +425, which was obviously a little cocky. He did have a few chances near the end of the game though, and we can't underestimate his deployment on the top line with Tkachuk and Norris. This goes down as the best betting week in my life, easily.